Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites. The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts
I want to take a moment to reflect during this holiday, on my fallen sisters and brothers who made the ultimate sacrifice for freedom. Remembering them on Memorial Day.
HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY!
Good day everyone!
The Hurricane Season officially begins June 01, 2017. PLEASE, take this time to review your hurricane preparedness and evacuation plans.
The Tropical Atlantic is quiet at the moment.
Analysis of the current global model runs reveals some of the global models indicate “mischief” may occur in the Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX) in approximately 7 – 10 days from 12Z this morning.
The 12Z run of the ECMWF indicates lowering MSLP normalized anomalies over the Gulf. The ECMWF is the only global model at the moment to indicate this, however the ECMWF has been noted to be the premier forecast model in relation to the global models. I can’t ignore the ECMWF, as it has shown some consistency in the past few model runs.
The CMC GGEM and NAVGEM models to some extent spins up a small, weak system as well, and the NCEP/EMC CYCLOGENESIS TRACKING page is currently hinting at a moderate probability. However, at the moment, I have only one problem with this…the current wind shear forecast is calling for wind shear to be unfavorable for the development of any tropical cyclones. At first thought, I believed the models may have been detecting something sub-tropical, initially involving a “baroclinic” low ( a low pressure area basically in what we see in an MLC or Mid Latitude Cyclone), as wind shear doesn’t affect a baroclinic low in the same way it does a tropical low pressure system (barotropic low).
BAROCLINIC AND BAROTROPIC LOW EXPLAINED (CLICK LINK)
Upon further analysis involving the NOAA RUC HFIP modeling page, some of the global models are projecting a possible crossover system entering the BOC in 5 – 7 days. This may be a possibility, as there currently is an area of disturbed weather in the EPAC, that has been designated with a 40% probability of cyclone formation during the next 5 days, and is forecast at the moment to move slowly northward. So, at the moment, I cannot totally rule out a crossover into the BOC (Bay of Campeche), based on that information from the NHC, and analysis of current forecast steering layers charts which seem to indicate the steering flow could become more of a southerly to northerly direction.
NOAA RUC HFIP MODELING PAGE CMC, UKMET AND NAVGEM MODELS
NCEP/EMC CYCLOGENESIS TRACKING
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST DAY 8 – 10
I will continue to monitor further model runs to see if the ECMWF continues with lowering pressure anomalies, and to see of any of the other global models come on board with the idea. I will also be monitoring the wind shear forecast, as I do not prefer to go out 7 – 10 days out in the forecast period regarding wind shear, as in my years of forecasting, I’ve seen the wind shear pattern change abruptly.
I will try to have another update out tomorrow. Time TBD.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS