TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE GOMEX MISCHIEF?…ISSUED MAY 28, 2017…3:40 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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I want to take a moment to reflect during this holiday, on my fallen sisters and brothers who made the ultimate sacrifice for freedom.  Remembering them on Memorial Day.

HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY!

Good day everyone!

The Hurricane Season officially begins June 01, 2017.  PLEASE, take this time to review your hurricane preparedness and evacuation plans.

The Tropical Atlantic is quiet at the moment. 

NOAA SSD ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP (WIDE) (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)

Analysis of the current global model runs reveals some of the global models indicate “mischief” may occur in the Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX) in approximately 7 – 10 days from 12Z this morning.

The 12Z run of the ECMWF indicates lowering MSLP normalized anomalies over the Gulf.  The ECMWF is the only global model at the moment to indicate this, however the ECMWF has been noted to be the premier forecast model in relation to the global models.  I can’t ignore the ECMWF, as it has shown some consistency in the past few model runs.  

The CMC GGEM and NAVGEM models to some extent spins up a small, weak system as well, and the NCEP/EMC CYCLOGENESIS TRACKING page is currently hinting at a moderate probability.  However, at the moment, I have only one problem with this…the current wind shear forecast is calling for wind shear to be unfavorable for the development of any tropical cyclones.  At first thought, I believed the models may have been detecting something sub-tropical, initially involving a “baroclinic” low ( a low pressure area basically in what we see in an MLC or Mid Latitude Cyclone), as wind shear doesn’t affect a baroclinic low in the same way it does a tropical low pressure system (barotropic low). 

BAROCLINIC AND BAROTROPIC LOW EXPLAINED (CLICK LINK)
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/49/

Upon further analysis involving the NOAA RUC HFIP modeling page, some of the global models are projecting a possible crossover system entering the BOC in 5 – 7 days.  This may be a possibility, as there currently is an area of disturbed weather in the EPAC, that has been designated with a 40% probability of cyclone formation during the next 5 days, and is forecast at the moment to move slowly northward.  So, at the moment, I cannot totally rule out a crossover into the BOC (Bay of Campeche), based on that information from the NHC, and analysis of current forecast steering layers charts which seem to indicate the steering flow could become more of a southerly to northerly direction.

CMC GGEM

NAVGEM

NOAA RUC HFIP MODELING PAGE CMC, UKMET AND NAVGEM MODELS

NCEP/EMC CYCLOGENESIS TRACKING

RAMSDIS EPAC FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK FOR LOOP ACTIVATION)

NHC 5 DAY PACIFIC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR TEXT)

However, based on the current wind shear prognosis, I don’t see much of a chance for development over the Gulf of Mexico.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST DAY 8 – 10

I will continue to monitor further model runs to see if the ECMWF continues with lowering pressure anomalies, and to see of any of the other global models come on board with the idea.  I will also be monitoring the wind shear forecast, as I do not prefer to go out 7 – 10 days out in the forecast period regarding wind shear, as in my years of forecasting, I’ve seen the wind shear pattern change abruptly.

I will try to have another update out tomorrow.  Time TBD.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected  during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE GOMEX MISCHIEF?…ISSUED MAY 28, 2017…3:40 P.M. EDT

  1. Gatormom says:

    I have followed you for many years and trust you to keep us on track. Thank you for all you to keep us safe.

  2. greg goodman says:

    thankyou mr storm looks like things starting a little earley.

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