UPDATED 2017 SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST… ISSUED MAY 23, 2017…4:10 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

UPDATE MAY 25, 2017:  Having reviewed analog years once again, and the fact we have had one system already, I am making a final “tweak” to my seasonal forecast…please see the seasonal forecast section of this synopsis.

The BOM ENSO WRAP UP site has update, with new information on their forecast for the NINO 3.4 region forecast, and as promised, I am posting my final 2017 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast.

First, let’s begin with a graphic that shows the NINO regions by location:

NINO REGIONS MAP

The following are the forecast NINO plumes from various models, updated for May, 2017.

It is noted the ECMWF model is the most bullish for a developing El Nino.  However, El Nino conditions if they occur, will most likely be right after the peak of the 2017 hurricane season.

ECMWF NINO PLUMES

NMME NINO 3.4 FORECAST PLUMES (ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ALL MEMBERS)

CFS v2 NINO PLUME FORECAST

BOM POAMA NINO 3.4 FORECAST (APR – MAY COMPARISON)

UKMET NINO PLUME FORECAST

As one can see, the trend overall has been downward in regions 1 & 2, slightly in region 3, region 3.4 fairly neutral and warming in region 4.

This coincides with the SST Anomaly forecasts:

ECMWF JAS – ASO SST ANOMALY FORECAST

CFS V2 SST ANOMALY FORECAST JAS – ASO

Here are SST anomalies from 2002 and 2004 for comparison:

SST ANOMALIES AUG – SEP 2002 (LINKED)

SST ANOMALIES AUG – SEP 2004 (LINKED)

The following u200 – u850 wind anomaly charts represent wind shear.  It appears during the peak of the season, wind shear should be below climatology, as indicated by the negative anomalies (blue shading)

CFS V2 WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Rainfall accumulations over west Africa have shown some deficits over the past 30 days.  However, the current forecast is leaning toward slightly above normal rainfall over the Sahel region :

CPC AFRICAN DESK


CPC 30 DAY MEASURED RAINFALL

CURRENT 30 DAY DEFICIT

JUN – AUG PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY

JUL – SEP

Now, are these model outputs correct?  Your guess is as good as mine, however the NINO plume forecast have been trending downward in the past few months, with most of the models in agreement.

If you note the SST Anomaly forecasts, which coincide with the NINO plumes, the anomaly forecasts are not too much indifferent than the years 2002 and 2004.  Based on this, and the reanalysis of the CPC Oceanic Nino Index, both trend and temperature analysis, I came up with the analog years, which seem to fit the best profile, of 1951, 2002, and 2004.  I especially feel comfortable with 2002 and 2004, in that pretty much resembling the SST anomaly forecasts, it appears that El Nino Modoki conditions are forecast, given the plumes in region 1 & 2 becoming cooler, with the higher heat content becoming focused in the central and western Pacific, with warming being shown especially in NINO region 4.  This is not indicative of a “canonical” El Nino, but more so of a “Modoki” El Nino

CANONICAL EL NINO AND MODOKI EL NINO

The current forecast for the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) is for the IOD to become positive by some climate models, however could be within neutral range until winter.  We’ll have to see how this affects the Cape Verde season, as a positive IOD would have the tendency to disrupt the west African monsoon circulation, which is usually a negative for a big Cape Verde season.

IOD

Based on the information at hand, should the model forecasts verify, and given the chosen analog years, my updated seasonal forecast is as follows:

TOTAL STORMS: 12-15
HURRICANES:       6-7
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4

This forecast does not mean the higher numbers will definitely be met, however based on the analogs, the higher totals were within range of one of the analogs.

The season officially begins June 01, 2017.  PLEASE, take this time to review your hurricane preparedness and evacuation plans.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to UPDATED 2017 SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST… ISSUED MAY 23, 2017…4:10 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, storm. I got 1.35″ of rain, at my house from this last system, Thurs. into Friday morning. system had a nice “swirl” to it on RADAR and Satellite . I think they said it was an upper air low, a pretty strong one at that. My Baro. now at 10:42am Friday is pretty low at 29.56″ Starting to clear, 60F

  2. Mac says:

    Storm, thanks for your hard work performing this analysis. Like dellamom, I’m hoping for a season more like 2004! Unusually cool here this morning. 53F which breaks the record low for the date at the Hammond, LA airport NWS reporting site. New Orleans tied their record low of 58F. But, we’ll be into the low 90’s by the weekend with a 70F+ dewpoint. Rain forecasted for Memorial Day.

  3. Greg Goodman says:

    Thank you Mr storm I Hope your storm totals don’t affect the united States states

  4. dellamom says:

    WOW! Just saw the Storm Prediction Center Day 1, and you (and most of Florida) are in the bullseye! Be safe, my friend.

  5. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I still haven’t read yesterday’s report (working myself to death), but am looking forward to a little quiet time to absorb it. Do you still believe that we will have more “home grown” events, rather than Cape Verde events? And is the Gulf region at a higher risk than past years? 2004 doesn’t scare me nearly as much as 2005! Just trying to be as prepared as I need to be. The good news is that there are no trees that can fall on the house (just the new garage) and the new generator works like a charm. So all we need to worry about are tornadoes and flooding.

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