TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS AND TIDBITS…ISSUED MAY 22, 2017…2:40 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

Satellite loop imagery indicates the shower activity noted near Panama and Nicaragua has diminished, and wind shear can be seen blowing upper level clouds to the east.

NOAA ATLANTIC WIDE SATELLITE LOOP

Analysis of the global models this morning does not indicate any development during the next 7-10 days.  The latest run of the NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis ensemble models has also dropped the probabilities it had yesterday for possible development over the Gulf of Honduras.

NCEP / EMC CYCLOGENESIS TRACKING

Wind shear is fairly high over the Caribbean and GOMEX, with the following pattern forecast to remain in place over the next 10 days.

GFS 240 HOUR WIND SHEAR

I will continue to monitor the tropics, as we all know how quickly we have seen conditions change over the past few seasons.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Since nothing is expected over the next few days, I wanted to take this time  to try to explain  how El Nino, La Nina, and El Nino Modoki conditions affect the Tropical Atlantic during our hurricane season.  Lets start with La Nina / Neutral conditions:  This is when we see much colder SST Anomalies coming off the west coast of South America, which extend toward the west.  Warmer SST anomalies are therefore confined the the WPAC, near Australia.  This sets up a circulation, that does not allow wind shear to affect the Atlantic Basin.  I know the graphics look the same, however if you note the arrows, the circulation setup is a little stronger with La Nina.

LA NINA / NEUTRAL CONDITIONS

El Nino, is when we see the much warmer “tongue” of water coming off the South American west coast, and extending back to the west.  Again, this creates a much different atmospheric circulation / pattern due to extra heat being released from the ocean, and rising over the western portions of the U.S.  This allows for the familiar “sub-tropical jet” or southern jetstream branch to activate and become very strong.  This in turn helps to create the strong westerlies across the Atlantic basin.

EL NINO CONDITIONS

El Nino Modoki, focuses the energy and heat more over the Central Pacific, to where the atmospheric circulation is far enough away from the U.S., that it has no real affect over the Atlantic MDR.

EL NINO MODOKI

The following graphic is linked to an article from Climate.gov, explaining how each condition affects the Atlantic basin.

IMPACTS OF EL NINO AND LA NINA

Next, just something brief on one basic for tropical cyclone steering.  The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) plays a part in steering these systems.  I’ve noticed folks speak of the subtropical ridge, in when it is fairly strong, will push systems into the U.S. coast.  Actually, this is a misnomer, as if you strengthen the ridge upstream, then you strengthen the trof downstream…in other words, the trof on the west side of the subtropical ridge will be stronger, allowing for storms to steer toward the north…per se’.  The following graphic is linked to an article regarding the Negative and Positive phase of the NAO during hurricane season.

NAO

The BOM ENSO Wrap Up site is supposed to update tomorrow on the Nino 3.4 forecast.  Once I can analyze this, and the updates from other climate models, I will probably have another revised seasonal hurricane forecast for the season. Right now, most of the evidence is pointing toward ENSO Neutral, warm biased to El Nino Modoki conditions. This should be my last revision, unless a major change occurs in the climate models in June.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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