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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
Satellite loop imagery indicates some shower and thunderstorm activity in the Caribbean Sea, just north of the Isthmus of Panama. This activity is currently associated with the Monsoon Trof extending east from the Pacific. Close analysis shows that this shower activity is associated with a broad area of low pressure centered south of the Isthmus, over the extreme EPAC.
Upper level winds are currently not favorable for development over the W. Caribbean Sea, and are forecast to remain non conducive during the next 7 days.
Elsewhere, analysis of cyclogenesis modeling tends to indicate models “hinting” at some mischief in the western Caribbean in about 8-10 days from now. The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Forecast is showing approximately a 30% probability of a depression near Panama, where the current shower activity is seen, and the NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking page is hinting at a 60% probability of cyclogenesis in the forecast period of 120-240 hours (5-10 day period) over the Gulf of Honduras. Analysis of current global models runs, dose not indicate anything at this time. It is noted however, in analysis of the wind shear forecast from the GFS, upper level winds are forecast to become more favorable over the area of the Gulf of Honduras at days 8 -10, and upward vertical velocities (rising air) are indicated in the GFS 200 mb vertical velocity forecast. Given the discrepancy between the global models, wind shear, and vertical velocity forecast, I’m not sold on any development…yet. I will however be checking in and out on this to see if any changes in the model forecasts occur.
GFS 200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY FORECAST
I don’t know if anyone remembers me mentioning the 200 mb vertical velocities forecast previously, and how the setup would continue to allow the SOI to continue to come up toward positive, and I expected some cooling in NINO region 1 & 2 by months end…here ya go:
SOI 30 DAY
CURRENT REYNOLDS SST ANOMALY MAP
As we get closer to June 01, 2017, there is a slim probability we may see a reversal in the pattern, and trades could begin to shift to a west to east pattern in the PAC, which would allow for some of the warm subsurface water to reach the surface, according to colleague Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell Analytics. In his discussion, he references this may be the setup of the El Nino Modoki we have been discussing. It seems to be consensus of a few of us, that El Nino conditions may not arrive until winter, if current trends continue. However, based on the current MJO forecast from Dr. Michael Ventrice’s site, I am not seeing much of a change in the pattern by June 1st:
I will continue to monitor the tropics, and save any significant severe weather, intend to update on my days off of work, when able.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS