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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The SPC has designated the following severe weather risk areas in the Day 1 Outlook as of the 1630Z issuance, as well as a Public Severe Weather Outlook…I have included the outlook text given the complex nature of today’s setup:
…THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE…
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES…
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES…
Multiple clusters of severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight within a swath from west Texas across the central Plains to the western Corn Belt and mid Missouri Valley. Tornadoes, severe gusts, and large, damaging hail are expected within this corridor. The greatest threat of a strong tornado or two appears to be focused over parts of western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle.
Morning water vapor loop shows a deep trough over the western states, with a leading shortwave impulse rotating across NM. 12z model solutions remain consistent that a cluster of intense thunderstorms will develop by mid afternoon over parts of southwest KS as this shortwave trough approaches. Strong heating is occurring in this region, with afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg and minimal cap. Initial storms will likely be capable of very large hail and isolated tornadoes, but it seems likely that rapid upscale growth into a fast-moving squall line will occur. This will enhance the risk of damaging winds as storms spread northeastward across central/eastern KS and into parts of NE/IA/MO. If storm-scale trends dictate, this area may be considered for an upgrade to MDT risk in later updates.
…Western OK/TX Panhandle…
Low level moisture continues to stream rapidly northward into the TX Panhandle and western OK, with dewpoints now in the mid 60s across the region. Model forecast soundings by mid-late afternoon suggest strong instability will be present with MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg and 8 C/km lapse rates. Isolated and discrete convection is expected to form along the dryline in the TX Panhandle and track northeastward through the mid-evening. A pocket of strong low-level shear is forecast to develop in this region, resulting in favorable hodograph structures for supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded this area to MDT risk.
Later this evening, thunderstorms will likely develop southward along the dryline/cold front across parts of west TX. Large hail and damaging winds are expected with these storms. However, this activity is not expected to develop until well after dark when the capping inversion will be strengthening. This may tend to somewhat limit the coverage of severe storms. The line of storms will spread eastward and into west-central TX overnight.
A shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track eastward and help to maintain scattered thunderstorms over parts of the western Great Lakes region. Breaks in the clouds will help to destabilize this area, and may lead to a few strong/severe storms later this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient vertical shear and CAPE to pose a risk of hail and damaging winds in the strongest cells. An isolated tornado is also possible.
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point
Based on analysis of forecast sounding data from F5 DATA software, utilizing the RAP model, along with analysis of the SPC outlook text, the RAP suggests the strongest of the severe weather may initiate as early as 2:00p.m. EDT (1:00 p.m. CDT) over the TX/OK regions. Sounding indices and values indicate the strongest severe weather, especially tornadoes, may occur between 5:00 p.m. – 8:00p.m. EDT in the outlined areas in the following maps. The model has also suggested the threat for tornadic activity over portions of the Upper Midwest
RAP 5:00 P.M. EDT SOLUTION
RAP 8:00 P.M. SOLUTION
RAP SOLUTION 5:00 – 8:00 P.M. UPPER MIDWEST
Based on the analysis of forecast tornado parameter values, isolated tornadoes over the MODERATE risk and hatched area in the SPC outlook maps could become strong, and long track.
Residents in the outlined SPC MODERATE and ENHANCED risk area, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements for up to date information regarding any necessary actions.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.
For the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical waves were initialized near 10N;30W, 11N;50W, 13N;68W, and 13N;80W. The waves were moving toward the west at around 10 – 15 knots. No significant precipitation was noted.
An area of disturbed weather persists in the W. Caribbean as of analysis this morning. Noted to the west of the convective area, is a partial low level circulation. This activity is associated with a trof of lower pressure. Analysis of the GFS Global Pressure Level modeling, as well as the ECMWF Global Pressure Level, did indicate MSLP pressure height falls in the normalized anomaly maps this morning.
Analysis of the models indicates this area should remain a trof of low pressure, and no organization is expected. Analysis of current and forecast shear maps via the GFS indicates upper level winds are not favorable for development at this time, and are forecast to remain not conducive for development during the next 5-6 days. Models indicate the trof may strengthen slightly, prior to it eventually dissipating. I will be monitoring this area however, as the GFS in about the 7-10 day period, indicates lowering normalized MSLP pressure anomalies near the Bahamas. Based on the wind shear forecast alone, I am not expecting to see any development over the next 7-10 days.
GFS MSLP NORMALIZED PRESSURE ANOMALY MAPS
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS