TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 15, 2017…10:30 A.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

First, I would appreciate any prayers you can send this way, as my Fiancees Mom is undergoing surgery today for a total knee replacement.  Thank you all, in advance.

Yes, I know it’s only May 15, and today kicks off the 2017 Hurricane Season for the Pacific, but as posted previously, reasons were explained for my issuance of my Tropical Weather Outlook  Synopsis beginning today.

Analysis of the global models indicates no tropical development during the next 10 – 14 days.  There were noted some fluctuations in pressure anomalies over the W. Caribbean in the models, however nothing in my analysis is significant to catch my eye.

Satellite imagery this morning indicated some disturbed weather over the W. Caribbean, which is associated with a stationary front.  Conditions over the area are not favorable for any type of development.

NOAA TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The Atlantic Hurricane Season kicks off on June 01.  In the start of the season, attention becomes focused on the W. Caribbean Sea and GOMEX (Gulf Of MEXico).  As we get toward late July, and through Aug – Sep, our focus shifts toward the central and eastern Atlantic Basin, and then back westward in Oct-Nov.  The following graphic indicates “climatology” as far as frequency of storms.  I know last season, there was  anxiety from some, wondering if the season was ever going to kick off and pick up.  Last season, we had 4 storms develop by June 19.  Danielle lasted through to June 21.  From that point, it was 42 days before we saw development again.  The season ended with a total of 15 storms.  For those enthusiasts that feel anxious that a season will bust due to the fact you see above average seasonal forecasts, just refer back to climatology.  One factor from last season, was an unusual amount of African dust, which made its way into mid Aug.  One thing to remember about the SAL that late in the season, if a wave has a high amount of precipitable water associated with it, chances are it will successfully fight off dry air most of the time.

ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON CLIMATOLOGY (LINKED TO SHOW POINT OF ORIGIN)

To touch on my revised seasonal hurricane forecast, I will most likely fine tune it, once the May updates to all the climate models are complete.  There is a mix at the moment in the SST anomaly forecasts from various models, but for the most part, it appears we may be in El Nino Modoki conditions this season, or Neutral, warm biased.

The CFSv2 Climate Model has updated, and has once again, ranged cooler in the NINO 3.4 region as compared to its last update.

CFSv2 MAY 15, 2017 UPDATE



In another note, the SOI had taken a pretty good dip into the negative, but daily values are indicating the SOI is moving toward positive, and is reflected in the slight upturn in the SOI 30 day running mean SOI graph.

SOI 30 DAY RUNNING MEAN

I do believe, we will see the SOI continue to rise, which should lead to some cooling in the EPAC, especially in NINO regions 1&2.  I am basing this on my analysis of the CHI 200 Vertical Velocity forecast maps.  For at least the next 5 days, positive (downward motion) velocities, indicating sinking air (higher pressure anomalies) are forecast to remain over the EPAC and our area.  Negative (upward motion) velocities, indicating rising air (lower pressure anomalies).  This setup implies trade winds in the Pacific should flow from east to west, toward Australia, allowing for upwelling of cooler water along the South American coast.  When pressures are lower over Darwin, and higher near Tahiti, the SOI is said to be positive.

200 MB CHI VELOCITIES FORECAST MAPS




If the climate models continue to pretty much agree with each other on the final update prior to June 01, I shouldn’t have too much change in my seasonal numbers.  Pretty much, I’m feeling it could be a toss up between 12-15, 5-7, 3-4 or 12-14, 5-6, 2-3.  One thing to bear in mind about my seasonal forecasts, the range of numbers does not imply we will definitely “see” those totals.  My seasonal forecasts indicate, (based on the average of carefully chosen analog years, and based on the various parameters and how they match up with the “best” analogs) that forecast conditions materialize, activity could be within the range indicated.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 15, 2017…10:30 A.M. EDT

  1. Mac says:

    Prayers sent for your girlfriend’s mother. My wife went through it a few years back, and was back on her feet in no time at all (a few weeks), and wishes she had done it sooner. My Primary care Doctor had one knee done in the summer of 2016, and just had the other one done this past April. He sent me an email that he’ll be back seeing patients June 1st. I saw him in February and he was regretting not having both knees done. It’s amazing how far these kinds of surgery have progressed!

  2. Greg Goodman says:

    mr. storm thank you for the update and keeping us informed

  3. Terry Smith says:

    BB. Keep up the great work. Loving every bit of it.

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