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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
First, I would appreciate any prayers you can send this way, as my Fiancees Mom is undergoing surgery today for a total knee replacement. Thank you all, in advance.
Yes, I know it’s only May 15, and today kicks off the 2017 Hurricane Season for the Pacific, but as posted previously, reasons were explained for my issuance of my Tropical Weather Outlook Synopsis beginning today.
Analysis of the global models indicates no tropical development during the next 10 – 14 days. There were noted some fluctuations in pressure anomalies over the W. Caribbean in the models, however nothing in my analysis is significant to catch my eye.
Satellite imagery this morning indicated some disturbed weather over the W. Caribbean, which is associated with a stationary front. Conditions over the area are not favorable for any type of development.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season kicks off on June 01. In the start of the season, attention becomes focused on the W. Caribbean Sea and GOMEX (Gulf Of MEXico). As we get toward late July, and through Aug – Sep, our focus shifts toward the central and eastern Atlantic Basin, and then back westward in Oct-Nov. The following graphic indicates “climatology” as far as frequency of storms. I know last season, there was anxiety from some, wondering if the season was ever going to kick off and pick up. Last season, we had 4 storms develop by June 19. Danielle lasted through to June 21. From that point, it was 42 days before we saw development again. The season ended with a total of 15 storms. For those enthusiasts that feel anxious that a season will bust due to the fact you see above average seasonal forecasts, just refer back to climatology. One factor from last season, was an unusual amount of African dust, which made its way into mid Aug. One thing to remember about the SAL that late in the season, if a wave has a high amount of precipitable water associated with it, chances are it will successfully fight off dry air most of the time.
To touch on my revised seasonal hurricane forecast, I will most likely fine tune it, once the May updates to all the climate models are complete. There is a mix at the moment in the SST anomaly forecasts from various models, but for the most part, it appears we may be in El Nino Modoki conditions this season, or Neutral, warm biased.
The CFSv2 Climate Model has updated, and has once again, ranged cooler in the NINO 3.4 region as compared to its last update.
CFSv2 MAY 15, 2017 UPDATE
In another note, the SOI had taken a pretty good dip into the negative, but daily values are indicating the SOI is moving toward positive, and is reflected in the slight upturn in the SOI 30 day running mean SOI graph.
SOI 30 DAY RUNNING MEAN
I do believe, we will see the SOI continue to rise, which should lead to some cooling in the EPAC, especially in NINO regions 1&2. I am basing this on my analysis of the CHI 200 Vertical Velocity forecast maps. For at least the next 5 days, positive (downward motion) velocities, indicating sinking air (higher pressure anomalies) are forecast to remain over the EPAC and our area. Negative (upward motion) velocities, indicating rising air (lower pressure anomalies). This setup implies trade winds in the Pacific should flow from east to west, toward Australia, allowing for upwelling of cooler water along the South American coast. When pressures are lower over Darwin, and higher near Tahiti, the SOI is said to be positive.
200 MB CHI VELOCITIES FORECAST MAPS
If the climate models continue to pretty much agree with each other on the final update prior to June 01, I shouldn’t have too much change in my seasonal numbers. Pretty much, I’m feeling it could be a toss up between 12-15, 5-7, 3-4 or 12-14, 5-6, 2-3. One thing to bear in mind about my seasonal forecasts, the range of numbers does not imply we will definitely “see” those totals. My seasonal forecasts indicate, (based on the average of carefully chosen analog years, and based on the various parameters and how they match up with the “best” analogs) that forecast conditions materialize, activity could be within the range indicated.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS