ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK / COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 10, 2017…5:15 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good evening everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated the following risk areas as of the 2000z issuance of the Day 1 Outlook:

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF INDIANA/ILLINOIS WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO…AND SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected along a corridor from the southern Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley. The strongest activity should focus across parts of northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma where very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Based on the outlook, most of the severe weather appears to occur over a portion of OK/TX.  Albeit the SPC has a 5% prob. of tornadoes over a portion of IL, these may occur as I am drafting this synopsis.  Based on analysis of F5 DATA software, the NAM-WRF suggests the most severe weather to occur in the following outlined areas approx. 5:00 p.m. -8:00 p.m. EDT

F5 NAM-WRF SEVERE 5:00 P.M. EDT

F5 NAM-WRF SEVERE 8:00 P.M. EDT

Based on the forecast sounding data, the following outlines suggests where the greatest probability for tornadoes to occur 5:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m. EDT

F5 NAM-WRF TOR.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY (CLICK GRAPHIC TO UPDATE)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY (CLICK GRAPHIC TO UPDATE)

CLICK RADAR MAP FOR RADAR ACCESS

Elsewhere, analysis of the global models indicates models are in agreement of a coastal storm developing this weekend around Mother’s day.  The low moves off the U.S. East coast IVO VA/MD as a weak surface low.  Once over the water, it begins to deepen, remaining fairly close to the coast, moving quickly to the NE and IVO Maine by Monday.

GFS

CMC

ECMWF REGIONAL

There are some slight differences in strength within the 3 models, however for the most part, areas north of the gale center should be experiencing winds upon the order of 30 kts, to possibly 35 knots.  Areas north of the system center may experience seas along the coast of 8 – 9 ft, and 11 – 12 ft offshore.  Based on the current Wavewatch model output from the Stormsurf site, it appears the worst effects will be experienced from MD/NJ area, northward.

WAVEWATCH WIND FORECAST (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)

OPC OFFSHORE FORECAST (CLICK ON GRAPHIC)

Areas north of the center will experience an onshore flow.  Minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide, and beach erosion cannot be ruled out.

Residents this weekend into Monday, are urged to remain away from the shoreline, and off the water.  Smallcraft should remain in port until the passage of this system, and seas subside.

This will be my final update, as I work the remainder of the week.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK / COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 10, 2017…5:15 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Prayers to all in the path, and I hope people stay away from the beaches.

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