Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites. The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
Good day everyone!
The area of disturbed weather located in the EPAC, has been designated INVEST 90E and continues to show improvement in overall structure. Current wind shear analyses indicates upper level winds are on the order of 15-20 kts over the system, however the flow is out of an easterly direction, and streamlines indicate a somewhat divergent pattern aloft. Albeit not optimal at he moment, the GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds should once again become a little more favorable during the next 18-24 hours, and very favorable within the next 48 hours. The upper level anticyclone that was over the area has shifted east, over land, but is forecast to re-establish itself over the system by 48 hours. Based on this, I expect further organization of this area, and a Tropical Depression may develop within the next 48-72 hours. The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability of cyclone development during the next 48 hours, and a HIGH (80%) probability during the next 5 days.
Based on analysis of the global models, slow development is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical depression, to a possible mid-grade tropical storm. At around 5-6 days, the GFS and CMC bring it ashore around Guatemala/El Salvador area, and the ECMWF south of Oaxaca, MX. Based on a blend of the 3 models, I have to concur with the current guidance, favoring the NHC suite of guidance models. Based on this analysis, I do not feel once this system makes landfall, that it will be able to develop on our side as a crossover, and I will be discontinuing updates on the EPAC system, unless conditions warrant my attention.
NHC FORECAST GUIDANCE 90E
However, I will be monitoring the W. Caribbean (although I believe the GFS is being somewhat anomalous), as the GFS is indicating a significant lowering of pressure heights in about 7-8 days, and the NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page Multi Model Ensemble indicating roughly a 40% probability of cyclogenesis near the Isthmus of Panama between now and 5 days out. The GFS 200 MB CHI forecast (Blues indicate upward vertical velocity, yellow and brown, downward vertical velocity) indicates strong upward motion over the extreme EPAC area, into the W. Caribbean from now through day 8.5, with the phase progressing more into the Caribbean by days 7 and 8. This doesn’t necessarily mean development would occur, however I cannot ignore “hints” of the probability.
GFS NORMALIZED MSLP ANOMALY
NCEP/EMC CYCLOGENESIS MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECAST
200MB CHI FORECAST
The probability may becoming greater for an average to somewhat above average hurricane season. The following was a quick comment from Meteorologist Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell Analytics:
Quick Comment on Euro Seasonal
1)El Nino Weak through Summer
2) MDR warmer
3) More favorable Atlantic pressure pattern ( high pressure across north Atlantic, not south, for development
4) Temp pattern agrees with our ideas
The global models are still indicating a coastal storm to develop OOA 13-14 May, off the DELMARVA area. The GFS and CMC develop this more off the VA. coast, and pretty much move it straight toward the E to ENE, while the ECMWF indicates this to hug closer to the coastline, affecting the areas from Cape Cod, to VAB., with winds of 30-35 kts, and seas 7 ft near shore, to 15-19ft well offshore. Residents along the coast should remain off the water and away from beaches. Residents north of the center may very well experience minor coastal flooding and some beach erosion. I will try to update on this both tomorrow and Wed.
If you have any questions regarding tropical storms and hurricanes, don’t be afraid to ask here, or on my Facebook page:
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS