SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION / MOTHER’S DAY COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 07, 2017… 4:50 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The area of disturbed weather located in the EPAC, near 6.0N;88.0W continues to become better organized.  Current wind shear analyses indicates upper level winds are on the order of 5-10 kts over the system, with what looks like the beginning of an upper level anticyclone developing over the system.  Based on the current wind shear forecast, I expect further organization of this area.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see this designated as an INVEST soon.

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE EPAC LOOP IMAGERY

The current NHC GTWO designates a HIGH (70%) probability of development during the next 5 days.

NHC EPAC 5 DAY GTWO

Based on analysis of the global models, slow development is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical depression (GFS, CMC) to a minimal tropical storm (ECMWF).  At around 5-6 days, the GFS and CMC bring it ashore around Guatemala/El Salvador area, and the ECMWF south of Oaxaca, MX.

The NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Map still indicates a NW then NNE track.  However, based on the global model analysis, I feel the chance of a “crossover” has diminished.

The NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis page is also indicating a probability of a medium development chance, just north of Panama, and the RAMSDIS site does have a floater satellite over the area.  Based on climatology, and wind shear forecast, I am not expecting development in that area at the moment.

NCEP/EMC MULTI MODEL FORECAST

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP

I will have more details on this probably Wed., but analysis of the global models indicates a coastal storm developing during the Mother’s Day period, off the DELMARVA area.  The GFS indicates a weaker system, while the ECMWF is showing a somewhat stronger system with winds coming into the NJ coastal area of around 30-35 knots.  I’ll tr to have more on this Wed., as far as flooding potential and possible beach erosion.

GFS

CMC

And PLEASE, if you have any questions regarding tropical storms and hurricanes, don’t be afraid to ask here, or on my Facebook page:
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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