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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The area of disturbed weather located in the EPAC, near 6.0N;88.0W continues to become better organized. Current wind shear analyses indicates upper level winds are on the order of 5-10 kts over the system, with what looks like the beginning of an upper level anticyclone developing over the system. Based on the current wind shear forecast, I expect further organization of this area. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this designated as an INVEST soon.
The current NHC GTWO designates a HIGH (70%) probability of development during the next 5 days.
Based on analysis of the global models, slow development is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical depression (GFS, CMC) to a minimal tropical storm (ECMWF). At around 5-6 days, the GFS and CMC bring it ashore around Guatemala/El Salvador area, and the ECMWF south of Oaxaca, MX.
The NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Map still indicates a NW then NNE track. However, based on the global model analysis, I feel the chance of a “crossover” has diminished.
The NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis page is also indicating a probability of a medium development chance, just north of Panama, and the RAMSDIS site does have a floater satellite over the area. Based on climatology, and wind shear forecast, I am not expecting development in that area at the moment.
I will have more details on this probably Wed., but analysis of the global models indicates a coastal storm developing during the Mother’s Day period, off the DELMARVA area. The GFS indicates a weaker system, while the ECMWF is showing a somewhat stronger system with winds coming into the NJ coastal area of around 30-35 knots. I’ll tr to have more on this Wed., as far as flooding potential and possible beach erosion.
And PLEASE, if you have any questions regarding tropical storms and hurricanes, don’t be afraid to ask here, or on my Facebook page:
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS