SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…ISSUED MAY 06, 2017… 3:00 P.M.EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!

Good day everyone!

As I’ve stated previously, I started a couple seasons ago, posting my Tropical Weather Forecast Synopsis, starting May 15.  Yes, this date is the start of the Pacific season.  However, in the past, development in the extreme W. Caribbean near mid and 3rd week of May has not been a stranger to us., and not to forget, we had “Bonnie” from last season develop off the U.S. coast May 27.  By beginning my forecasts on the 15th of May, I can guard against any “crossovers” from the EPAC, in which one surprised me a few seasons ago.

Satellite imagery indicates a broad area of low pressure situated in the eastern Pacific near 8.0N;90.0W.  Definite cyclonic turning is noted in the loop imagery.  The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability of cyclone development over the next 48 hours, as of the May 6, 2017 12PM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook:

NHC EPAC GTWO (LINKED)

NOAA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP FLOATER IMAGERY

Yes, I know this is in the EPAC, however I am monitoring this for any chance of crossing over to the W. Caribbean.  Based on analysis of the global models this morning, the chance for a crossover system has lessened, with the ECMWF indicating this moves toward the NW during the next 5-7 days, then bringing it back toward the ESE and eventually inland and dissipating north of Oaxaca, Mexico.  The only models showing crossover into the W. Caribbean as a weak low, are the GFS and CMC,with the NCEP/EMC site still hinting at this.  Although my bet at the moment is with the ECMWF, I will be monitoring this over the next 7-10 days.

ECMWF

GFS

CMC

NCEP/EMC CYCLOGENESIS PAGE

Upper level winds are forecast to be favorable over the EPAC and W. Caribbean through day 11, form 06Z this morning.

Given that our hurricane season doesn’t begin “officially” until June 01, I wanted to post some preparedness and other information for those who follow my site.

The NHC reminds us that Hurricane Preparedness Week beings tomorrow.  The following graphic is linked, and will provide you with the various topics for the week.  Each topic has a short video you can click on, at the right side of the topic.

HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK

The following information can also be found under my “links” section of my site.  The following graphics are linked, CLICK ON THEM FOR THE FULL INFORMATION BOOKLET:

HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS GUIDE (LINKED TO NOAA GUIDE)

AGAINST THE WIND (PREPARE YOUR HOME)

HURRICANE PREPARATIONS FOR BOATERS

EVACUATION FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES AND OTHER NEEDS

PET EVACUATION

EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT

Hopefully this will help get you started.  It is advisable for those who live near or on the coast, or in vulnerable areas, to acquire items such as plywood maybe one – two sheets at a time in order to avoid buying it all at once, for window covering if needed.  Another idea is to keep your gas tank at least 1/2 to 3/4 full during the season, as if your area takes a hit, gas pumps will be down for days.

The following is the UPDATED Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale:

SAFFIR – SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS LINK:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/abbreviations/

And PLEASE, if you have any questions regarding tropical storms and hurricanes, don’t be afraid to ask here, or on my sites Facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/636421683206277/?ref=bookmarks

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…ISSUED MAY 06, 2017… 3:00 P.M.EDT

  1. Beachbums of Port Aransas says:

    Thanks, Storm
    Though the Season is still a bit away, some of us in the Coastal Bend of Texas are interested in what happens in the EPAC. A friend, neighbor, and local roofing-contractor has interests in Barra de Navidad, in Mexico. We like to keep up with what goes on there as well as here on The GOM. We appreciate your following these possible “crossovers” on your Blog.

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