Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
As I’ve stated previously, I started a couple seasons ago, posting my Tropical Weather Forecast Synopsis, starting May 15. Yes, this date is the start of the Pacific season. However, in the past, development in the extreme W. Caribbean near mid and 3rd week of May has not been a stranger to us., and not to forget, we had “Bonnie” from last season develop off the U.S. coast May 27. By beginning my forecasts on the 15th of May, I can guard against any “crossovers” from the EPAC, in which one surprised me a few seasons ago.
Satellite imagery indicates a broad area of low pressure situated in the eastern Pacific near 8.0N;90.0W. Definite cyclonic turning is noted in the loop imagery. The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability of cyclone development over the next 48 hours, as of the May 6, 2017 12PM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook:
Yes, I know this is in the EPAC, however I am monitoring this for any chance of crossing over to the W. Caribbean. Based on analysis of the global models this morning, the chance for a crossover system has lessened, with the ECMWF indicating this moves toward the NW during the next 5-7 days, then bringing it back toward the ESE and eventually inland and dissipating north of Oaxaca, Mexico. The only models showing crossover into the W. Caribbean as a weak low, are the GFS and CMC,with the NCEP/EMC site still hinting at this. Although my bet at the moment is with the ECMWF, I will be monitoring this over the next 7-10 days.
Upper level winds are forecast to be favorable over the EPAC and W. Caribbean through day 11, form 06Z this morning.
Given that our hurricane season doesn’t begin “officially” until June 01, I wanted to post some preparedness and other information for those who follow my site.
The NHC reminds us that Hurricane Preparedness Week beings tomorrow. The following graphic is linked, and will provide you with the various topics for the week. Each topic has a short video you can click on, at the right side of the topic.
The following information can also be found under my “links” section of my site. The following graphics are linked, CLICK ON THEM FOR THE FULL INFORMATION BOOKLET:
Hopefully this will help get you started. It is advisable for those who live near or on the coast, or in vulnerable areas, to acquire items such as plywood maybe one – two sheets at a time in order to avoid buying it all at once, for window covering if needed. Another idea is to keep your gas tank at least 1/2 to 3/4 full during the season, as if your area takes a hit, gas pumps will be down for days.
The following is the UPDATED Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale:
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS LINK:
And PLEASE, if you have any questions regarding tropical storms and hurricanes, don’t be afraid to ask here, or on my sites Facebook page:
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS