SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…ISSUED MAY 04, 2017…7:45 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good evening everyone!

Well, at some point, I have to draw the line, and began transitioning the site and forecasts toward the tropics.  Not really drawing a line, per se, but since the season is less than a month away, I feel it necessary to start posting items such as definitions to the various phenomenon and acronyms you see me post during the season, various tidbits of information, as well as preparation items.  I will try to include severe weather updates, should hey pose a serious enough threat assessment.  It’s just very time consuming, and wearing on me to perform both, in depth, as I am the ONLY forecaster here…LOL!.  Since it appears we may have a short break, in which the severe weather risks for the next 2 days are marginal, I wanted to post on something that sparked my attention for the tropics, albeit it may not wind up being anything.  However, the possibility always exists.

As I’ve stated previously, I started a couple seasons ago, posting my Tropical Weather Forecast Synopsis, starting May 15.  Yes, this date is the start of the Pacific season.  However, in the past, development in the extreme W. Caribbean near mid and 3rd week of May has not been a stranger to us., and not to forget, we had “Bonnie” from last season develop off the U.S. coast May 27.  By beginning my forecasts on the 15th of May, I can guard against any “crossovers” from the EPAC, in which one surprised me either the last season, or the one prior to that.

With that said, I’ve been analyzing the global modeling on and off over the past 4-5 days, and it appears Mother Nature may try to be right on time in the PAC, or even a little early.  The ECMWF has shown over the past couple of days, of a tropical system developing on the EPAC side, near approximately 10.0N;97.0W, in about 5-7 days.  As far as formation, the ECMWF has the support of other global models (GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, UKMET, and FIM8), however timing differences are noted.  The CPC Global Tropical Hazards Assessment Forecast also suggests EPAC development.  Now, I am not very concerned for our side (not that I am not concerned about the Isthmus of Panama, as by day 10, the ECMWF lowers the MLSP to 959 MB), looking at subtleties in motion, and where lowering pressure may occur after 10-14 days, the PAC system may have a SLIM chance at becoming a crossover, into the extreme W. Caribbean.  Let me caution you however, this is nothing definite.  I will be looking at things over the next few days, and all of this could change between now and 2 weeks out.  The ECMWF does suggest, that initial motion will be toward the WNW to NW .  By the end of the period (240 hours), the model brings it back toward the WSW and very close, to if not onshore over the Isthmus of Panama.

ECMWF MODEL 144 HOURS

ECMWF MODEL 210 HOURS

GFS MODEL
GFS MODEL

CMC MODEL

NAVGEM

The 12Z run of the NCEP /EMC Tropical Cyclogenesis Tracking Page hints at a north to NNW motion from the area it believes development may take place.

NCEP/EMC TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS

The GFS, and CMC (to some extent) hint at a weak low showing up in the W. Caribbean later in the period, and the NCEP 500 MB Mean Anomaly map indicating significant lowering of pressures over Honduras, extending partially into the Gulf of Honduras.

NCEP 500 MB MEAN ANOMALY FORECAST

While I do not believe anything to become organized in the W. Caribbean at the moment, regarding this system, it is noted upper level winds will be favorable for development in the EPAC, with favorable upper level winds shifting into the W. Caribbean for a short period thereafter, nearing day 10-12 in the period from 12Z today.  The current CHI 200 forecast (200 mb vertical velocity) also indicates strong upward motion to be in place during this time period.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY FORECAST MAPS

Again, this may amount to nothing, however I’d rather not have anymore surprises catch me off guard.

I will begin issuance of my Tropical Weather product on May 15, 2017, and may update my Seasonal Activity Forecast, either by the end of the month, or June 01, 2017, should the updated information from the climate models recent updates hold.

And PLEASE, if you have any questions regarding tropical storms and hurricanes, don’t be afraid to ask here, or on my sites Facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/636421683206277/?ref=bookmarks

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…ISSUED MAY 04, 2017…7:45 P.M. EDT

  1. Mac says:

    Thanks, Storm! The NWS office in Slidell, LA tied the low temperature record for today this morning with a low of 47F. Now you’re letting us know about the possibility of a Caribbean storm within the next two weeks. Wild weather!

  2. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm I am watching to.

  3. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm. I’ve been coming to work early and leaving late, but have been peeking in at this site and watching the Storm Prediction Center info for which you provided us with the link. We’ve had heavy weather here and I really appreciated knowing what was coming since my time at home has been limited and there are areas of usual flooding between home and work. Thanks again, Storm.

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