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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The SPC has designated the following severe weather risk areas in the Day 1 Outlook as of the 1630Z issuance:
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NY TO WESTERN NC…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NY TO SAVANNAH VALLEY…
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST STATES TO GA…
Scattered to numerous strong to severe storms are expected into this evening with damaging winds and a few tornadoes, most likely from western/central New York southward into the Carolinas.
Based on analysis of the outlook text, and analysis of forecast sounding indices, today’s activity should be in the form of linear bands with bowing segments (LEWPS). Damaging thunderstorm winds appears to be the main threat today, however 50 t0 60 knot 850mb winds may allow for some tornadoes within QLCS mesovortices, and/or embedded supercells.
At the moment, I am not expecting tornadoes to reach the magnitude we saw in Texas, however I cannot rule out an isolated strong tornado associated with stronger supercell activity.
Based on forecast sounding data indices, the RAP model is suggesting the following outlined areas to be at greatest risk for the severe threats, especially tornadic activity associated with isolated, stronger mesovortices and supercells. The current timing from the latest model update suggests peak time for this activity to be approximately 3:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. EDT, with possible ongoing activity lingering over PA around 9:00 p.m. EDT.
RAP MODEL 3:00 P.M. EDT OUTLINE
RAP MODEL 6:00 P.M. EDT OUTLINE
RAP MODEL 9:00 P.M. EDT OUTLINE
Residents in the outlined SPC ENHANCED and SLIGHT risk areas, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements for up to date information regarding any necessary actions.
The following TORNADO WATCH was in effect at the time of analysis (linked)
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information, and radar loops.
I will probably be updating my 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, and have it posted mid to late May. ALL the climate models have updated, and if current suggested information is accurate, we may not see El Nino this season, but neutral, warm biased conditions, to possibly an El Nino Modoki.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS