SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 30, 2017…4:00 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The SPC has designated the following severe weather risk areas in the Day 1 Outlook as of the 1630Z issuance:

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEEP SOUTH TO MIDWEST…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL GULF COAST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the Deep South into the Midwest, mainly this afternoon into early evening.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS

At the time of analysis, severe thunderstorms and hail were in progress over Alabama.

Based on forecast sounding data analysis, through F5 DATA software, from the current run of the RAP model, the following outlined maps suggest from the model solution, where the best probability of severe thunderstorms should occur, along with possible hail, and tornadoes.  The sounding data analyzed, indicates that isolated tornadoes could become strong and long track, especially  Modeling suggests the onset of the most severe weather to be around 3:00 p.m. CDT this evening, through 10:00 p.m. CDT.

RAP MODEL 3:00 P.M. CDT

RAP MODEL 7:00 P.M. CDT

RAP MODEL 10:00 P.M. CDT

Residents in the outlined SPC SLIGHT risk area, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements for up to date information regarding any necessary actions.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR SITE MAP

INTELLICAST RADAR SUMMARY (Click local area once map displays to zoom in)

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (click on graphic, then your area of interest)

I will probably be updating my 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, and have it posted mid to late May.  ALL the climate models have updated, and if current suggested information is accurate, we may not see El Nino this season, but neutral, warm biased conditions, to possibly an El Nino Modoki.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 30, 2017…4:00 P.M. EDT

  1. Beachbums of Port Aransas says:

    Thanks Storm,
    What has been a bad 24 hours for the rest of the area to the North and East and further, has proved to be a great day here in the Coastal Bend of Texas. I feel bad for those who have suffered. Take care, all out there in the way of the storms!
    Our prayers are with you.

  2. originallt says:

    Sounds like it could be an active year. How does that “African Dust” situation look?

    • Lt, Dust usually runs from now, sometimes into Aug. (mid Aug). I know last season it ran long. July is generally the worst month, with the worst and most outbreaks. The key with the SAL, is if a wave or disturbance has enough TPW associated with it, and just surrounding it, it can be able to fight off the dust.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks,Storm. Hope dellamom and Craig got thru the storms OK.

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