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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The SPC has designated the following severe weather risk areas in the Day 1 Outlook as of the 1630Z issuance:
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OK TO TN VALLEY…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK…
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…
Numerous severe storms are expected today, initially across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon, and across the southern Great Plains and Ozarks by tonight. Very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds are anticipated.
Based on forecast sounding data analysis, through F5 DATA software, from the current run of the RAP model, the following outlined maps suggest from the model solution, where the best probability of supercellular thunderstorms should occur, along with possible large, severe hail, and tornadoes. The sounding data analyzed, indicates that isolated tornadoes could become strong and long track, especially within the SPC higher probability areas. Modeling suggests the onset of the most severe weather to be around 5:00 p.m. CDT this evening, through 9:00 p.m. CDT.
RAP MODEL OUTLINE 5:00 P.M. CDT
RAP MODEL OUTLINE 8:00 P.M. CDT
RAP MODEL OUTLINE 9:00 P.M. CDT
The following forecast sounding indices were noted in model analysis, with the increase in values working from the SPC 2% tornado probability area to the 10% SPC probability:
SBCAPE= 1500-4000 J/KG
MLCAPE= 1500-3000 J/KG
LIFTED INDEX=-4 to -10
EHI=2 to 9
STP=5 to 20
1 KM VGP=0.2 to 1
3 KM VGP=0.2 to 0.6
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE=7.5 to 8.0C / KM
Residents in the outlined SPC ENHANCED and SLIGHT risk areas, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements for up to date information regarding any necessary actions.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.
I work tomorrow, and will not have an update. Please use the Day1 Outlook map to access the SPC site.
I will probably be updating my 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, and have it posted mid to late May. ALL the climate models have updated, and if current suggested information is accurate, we may not see El Nino this season, but neutral, warm biased conditions, to possibly an El Nino Modoki.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS