SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 28, 2017…1:00 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The SPC has designated the following severe weather risk areas in the Day 1 Outlook as of the 1630Z issuance:

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OK TO TN VALLEY…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Numerous severe storms are expected today, initially across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon, and across the southern Great Plains and Ozarks by tonight. Very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds are anticipated.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point

Based on forecast sounding data analysis, through F5 DATA software, from the current run of the RAP model, the following outlined maps suggest from the model solution, where the best probability of supercellular thunderstorms should occur, along with possible large, severe hail, and tornadoes.  The sounding data analyzed, indicates that isolated tornadoes could become strong and long track, especially within the SPC higher probability areas.  Modeling suggests the onset of the most severe weather to be around 5:00 p.m. CDT this evening, through 9:00 p.m. CDT.

RAP MODEL OUTLINE 5:00 P.M. CDT

RAP MODEL OUTLINE 8:00 P.M. CDT

RAP MODEL OUTLINE 9:00 P.M. CDT

The following forecast sounding indices were noted in model analysis, with the increase in values working from the SPC 2% tornado probability area to the 10% SPC probability:

SBCAPE= 1500-4000 J/KG
MLCAPE= 1500-3000 J/KG
LIFTED INDEX=-4 to -10
EHI=2 to 9
STP=5 to 20
1 KM VGP=0.2 to 1
3 KM VGP=0.2 to 0.6
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE=7.5 to 8.0C / KM

Residents in the outlined SPC ENHANCED and SLIGHT risk areas, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements for up to date information regarding any necessary actions.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR SITE MAP

INTELLICAST RADAR SUMMARY (Click local area once map displays to zoom in)

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (click on graphic, then your area of interest)

I work tomorrow, and will not have an update.  Please use the Day1 Outlook map to access the SPC site.

I will probably be updating my 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, and have it posted mid to late May.  ALL the climate models have updated, and if current suggested information is accurate, we may not see El Nino this season, but neutral, warm biased conditions, to possibly an El Nino Modoki.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 28, 2017…1:00 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Hey, ” Batten down the hatches”, dellamom, looks like some big storms for you by 11am Sunday morning!!

  2. Beachbums of Port Aransas says:

    Hope my daughter and her extended family up there in “Big D” escape this one. Thanks Storm.

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