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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The SPC has designated the following severe weather risk areas in the Day 1 Outlook as of the 1630Z issuance:
…THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA…
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MO INTO PARTS OF AR…TN…LA…MS…AND TX…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY…
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY…
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are most probable from northeast Texas across parts of Arkansas and northern Louisiana this afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms may extend as far north as Illinois/Indiana this afternoon and evening, and into the central Gulf States during the overnight hours.
…Lower MS Valley… Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A squall line currently extends from south-central MO into northeast TX. Several bowing structures along this line will pose a risk of damaging winds gusts, large hail, and perhaps a QLCS tornado or two this afternoon. The activity will likely spread into southeast MO and western KY/TN by early evening, with a continued severe threat.
Farther south, most model solutions suggest that the capping inversion will slowly weaken this afternoon. This should help to allow a few discrete storms to form in the warm sector ahead of the more organized convective line. Local VAD and forecast hodographs in this region continue to support a risk of supercells capable of tornadoes (some strong) if discrete initiation materializes. Therefore will maintain the MDT risk and 15% tornado forecast. These storms are expected to track northeastward through the evening into western/central MS where damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will remain possible.
Overnight, it is uncertain how far east the organized severe threat will persist. Nevertheless, will make no changes to the eastern extent of the SLGT risk at this time.
A Public Severe Weather Outlook is in effect:
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017
…Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight…
Central and southern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Northwest Mississippi Northeast Texas
* HAZARDS… Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds
* SUMMARY… Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are most probable from northeast Texas across parts of Arkansas and northern Louisiana this afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms may extend as far north as Illinois/Indiana this afternoon and evening, and into the central Gulf States during the overnight hours.
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. &&
Based on analysis of the SPC outlook, and forecast sounding data provided by the NAM-WRF regional model, via F5 DATA Severe Weather software, output of various severe weather and tornado indices while this situation will occur within the SPC outlines, it is suggested by the model solution that the severe / tornado threat may extend further south. The following outlines suggest where the greatest probability for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and strongest of the severe weather may occur. Based on various tornado forecast indices, some isolated tornadoes within the stronger supercells may be strong and long track. Based on the modeling, initiation of the most severe weather should occur shortly, approximately 1:00 p.m. CDT and continue through to approximately 4:00 – 5:00 p.m. CDT. The modeling suggests thereafter, at approximately 7:00 p.m. CDT, this activity may spread into western / west-central MS.
NAM-WRF 1:00 P.M. CDT SEVERE OUTLINE
NAM WRF 4:00 P.M. CDT SEVERE OUTLINE
NAM-WRF 7:00 P.M. CDT SEVERE OUTLINE
Residents in the outlined SPC MODERATE and ENHANCED risk areas, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements for up to date information regarding any necessary actions.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.
I work tomorrow, but intend to have an update for the severe weather forecast for Friday with SPC indicating an ENHANCED risk.
I will probably be updating my 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, and have it posted mid to late May. ALL the climate models have updated, and if current suggested information is accurate, we may not see El Nino this season, but neutral, warm biased conditions, to possibly an El Nino Modoki.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS