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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The area of low pressure I am monitoring does appear to have a weak, broad surface circulation, located NNE of the northern Bahamas, SW of the dense cloud pattern. Current thermal analysis from the Cyclone Phase Evolution site, indicates this low to be between a cold core / warm core state. Based on satellite loop imagery, early morning images portrayed of what appeared to be a more “tropical” low. Current satellite loop imagery now indicates, the low may be in the process of coming under the influence of the upper low, now situated over Georgia. However, it is noted in analysis of the Global and Regional Models this morning, that the low may be more tropical in nature, based on the premise as it moves northward over the Gulfstream, surface pressures fall, prior to the low becoming fully merged with the upper low just mentioned. I do not feel at the moment, that the low will be able to fully develop into anything that would become named, due to the short time it is forecast to remain over liquid real estate. Part of the point I’m trying to convey is, this low is more tropical than Arlene was in her short life span.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
Approximately 18 hours into the forecast period, valid 06Z today, the low should begin to affect the OBX area of NC. Sustained winds with this low should reach approximately 35 knots over a small area in a swath to the east of the system, and creating an onshore wind. Whenever you have an onshore wind, especially at the time of high tide, some minor beach erosion and possible breaching is a probability. Once this low, and the upper level low meet, some heavy rainfall amounts may be experienced over portions of the SE in the SC, NC, and VA regions. After merging with the upper low, the system is forecast to move N-NNE and eventually affect the New England area.
72 HOUR PROJECTED TOTAL RAINFALL
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS