SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 12, 2017…3:30 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

This may not become anything, but it’s here, and makes for a good practice run for the upcoming season.

Current satellite loop imagery and the 12Z Surface Analysis from NHC / TAFB indicates an inverted 104 mb trof of low pressure located near 27.0N;67.0W

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS

Based on current satellite motion and current steering layer mean, this low is moving slowly toward the west, to slightly north of due west.  Analysis of the recent forecast steering layers maps indicates this motion should continue during the next 24 – 36 hours, before a deep layer trof comes in and begins to pick it up, and move it rapidly toward the NE.

Based on analysis of various forecast surface maps, models tend to indicate a closed low does develop in about 24 hours, before opening back into a trof at around 48 hours in the forecast period from 12Z this morning.  SST’s over the area are warm enough to support sub-tropical development (23C), however analysis of the current wind shear map from CIMSS indicates 40 knots of westerly shear over the area.  Based on the current shear forecast from the GFS, upper level winds are forecast to remain around 30-40 knots throughout the period, and the 200 mb vertical velocity forecast indicates plenty of sinking air.  Based on the analysis of the TAFB surface map, this trof is at the end of an old frontal boundary, currently making this baroclinic in nature.  Even though the current shear forecast is not conducive for tropical development, if this trof does close off, the low may have a slim probability of trying to take on some sub-tropical characteristics through baroclinic forcing, however I believe it will be fairly difficult.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP

NCEP / EMC CYCLOGENESIS PROBABILITY

GFS FORECAST SURFACE MAP

CMC GGEM


NAM

NASA GEOS

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY FORECAST
I will continue to monitor this area, however I work the next 3 days, and will not be able to update.  I do not expect this to be a threat to the U.S., and as it opens back into a trof and/or dissipates, I do not expect any threat to shipping.

Hurricane season officially begins June 01, 2017.  However, in the past 2-3 years, I have started issuing my Tropical Weather Synopsis on May 15.  This allows me to keep abreast of anything that may be a crossover from the Pacific, or in the case of last year, early development in May (Bonnie, May 27 of last year).

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 12, 2017…3:30 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Given your report on the possibilities for this season, I am glad to have my whole-house generator up and running for the coming season.

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