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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
This may not become anything, but it’s here, and makes for a good practice run for the upcoming season.
Current satellite loop imagery and the 12Z Surface Analysis from NHC / TAFB indicates an inverted 104 mb trof of low pressure located near 27.0N;67.0W
Based on current satellite motion and current steering layer mean, this low is moving slowly toward the west, to slightly north of due west. Analysis of the recent forecast steering layers maps indicates this motion should continue during the next 24 – 36 hours, before a deep layer trof comes in and begins to pick it up, and move it rapidly toward the NE.
Based on analysis of various forecast surface maps, models tend to indicate a closed low does develop in about 24 hours, before opening back into a trof at around 48 hours in the forecast period from 12Z this morning. SST’s over the area are warm enough to support sub-tropical development (23C), however analysis of the current wind shear map from CIMSS indicates 40 knots of westerly shear over the area. Based on the current shear forecast from the GFS, upper level winds are forecast to remain around 30-40 knots throughout the period, and the 200 mb vertical velocity forecast indicates plenty of sinking air. Based on the analysis of the TAFB surface map, this trof is at the end of an old frontal boundary, currently making this baroclinic in nature. Even though the current shear forecast is not conducive for tropical development, if this trof does close off, the low may have a slim probability of trying to take on some sub-tropical characteristics through baroclinic forcing, however I believe it will be fairly difficult.
NCEP / EMC CYCLOGENESIS PROBABILITY
GFS FORECAST SURFACE MAP
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY FORECAST
I will continue to monitor this area, however I work the next 3 days, and will not be able to update. I do not expect this to be a threat to the U.S., and as it opens back into a trof and/or dissipates, I do not expect any threat to shipping.
Hurricane season officially begins June 01, 2017. However, in the past 2-3 years, I have started issuing my Tropical Weather Synopsis on May 15. This allows me to keep abreast of anything that may be a crossover from the Pacific, or in the case of last year, early development in May (Bonnie, May 27 of last year).
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS