SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 10, 2017…12:10 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated the following Severe Weather Risk areas in the Day 1 Convective Outlook, as of the 1300Z issuance:

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EDWARDS PLATEAU (TX) TO THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING AND IN BETWEEN THE TWO SLIGHT RISKS…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of hail and wind are expected from: * Northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin into Lower Michigan, with damaging winds, hail and perhaps a tornado or two. * Edwards Plateau (Texas) to the Arklatex this afternoon, with large hail and severe gusts possible.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS (LINKED)

Based on analysis of the SPC outlook, ongoing convection and thunderstorms should weaken by later this morning, over the northern slight risk area.  Behind this morning activity, thermodynamics are forecast to to change by this afternoon, which can be read in the outlook.  The northern slight risk area over portions of IL., IN., and MI. are forecast to be under the left exit region of a jet max within the jetstream.  The following link will explain the significance of the left exit region, regarding a jet max:

Jet Streaks
https://courseware.e-education.psu.edu/courses/meteo101/Section7p07.html

Based on the current forecast sounding data from the NAM-WRF 06Z run, residents over the slight risk areas may begin to notice some change in the weather at approximately 1:00 p.m. CDT.  However, current sounding data indicates the bulk of, and highest probability for the onset to be approximately 4:00 p.m. CDT, through the early evening hours.  Based on forecast indices, hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts appear to be the higher of the probabilities.  Earlier in the outlook, SPC had ascertained that thunderstorm activity would most likely be multicell / MCS type setup.  However, based on the thermodynamic changes that should occur, some cells have the potential to become supercellular in nature.

Based on current forecast tornado indices and parameters, I do not believe at the present moment we should see anything strong, however keep abreast of the situation via local NWS statements and watches.

The following outlined maps from F5 DATA software from the NAM-WRF forecast soundings, indicated where the highest probability for experiencing severe thunderstorms and accompanying weather should occur, between 3:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. CDT:

F5 DATA NAM-WRF 06Z RUN

The following F5 DATA maps indicate where the NAM-WRF believes the highest probability for isolated tornadoes may occur during the same period:

F5 DATA NAM-WRF TORNADO

During the 3:00 -7:00 p.m. CDT time frame, some of the sounding values are forecast to reach the following levels:

Northern risk area:
SBCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -6 to -8
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 8.5 – 9.0 C/km

Texas area:
SBCAPE: 2000 – 3000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 2000 – 2500 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -6 to -8
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 8.0 – 8.5 C/km

Residents in the outlined SPC slight risk areas, should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements for up to date information regarding any necessary actions.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR SITE MAP

INTELLICAST RADAR SUMMARY (Click local area once map displays to zoom in)

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (click on graphic, then your area of interest)

Tomorrow, I am  going to try and have my 2017 Hurricane Season Activity Forecast issued

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 10, 2017…12:10 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, A thought just crossed my head, in the end, you “out-lived” the WU Blogs! Good for you! you proved you didn’t need them anyways!

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