SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 09, 2017…3:00 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated the following Severe Weather Risk areas in the Day 1 Convective Outlook, as of the 1630Z issuance:

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER MIDWEST TO OK…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AND THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Isolated to scattered large hail and damaging winds will be possible later this afternoon into tonight from the Upper Midwest to Oklahoma.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS (LINKED)


Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. 

Based on analysis of the SPC outlook text, the main threats appear to be the probability of severe hail, and damaging straight line winds.  This is evident in analysis of current forecast soundings.  Brief and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out in the SPC 2% tornado probability area.  Albeit, based on the outlook, I am not expecting much in the way of strong tornado activity, based on analysis of certain tornado parameters in the F5 DATA soundings form both the RAP and NAM-WRF, there does exist the probability pf an isolated, moderately strong tornado within the outlined areas in the F5 DATA maps.  These outlines are based on a blend of the RAP and NAM-WRF models.  The main threat in the outline areas, should be the damaging thunderstorm gusts and hail as mentioned.  This is supported by the lifted index, and mid level lapse rates, which are forecast for this evening over the area, to reach 8.5 – 9.0 C/km.  Based on both the RAP and NAM-WRF solutions, the most severe activity may begin around 7:00 p.m. CDT, with the most critical times (approximate) between 8:00 p.m. – 11:00 p.m. CDT.  Residents in the outlined SPC area should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements for up to date information regarding any necessary actions.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL GRAPHICS

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR SITE MAP

INTELLICAST RADAR SUMMARY (Click local area once map displays to zoom in)

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (click on graphic, then your area of interest)

Tomorrow, I will once again focus on severe weather.  Tuesday, I am  going to try and have my 2017 Hurricane Season Activity Forecast issuded

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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