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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated the following Severe Weather Risk areas in the Day 1 Convective Outlook.
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST TO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AREA…AND EXTENDING INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA…
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA…AND INCLUDING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST…
Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible from the northeast Gulf coast into parts of the Carolinas through this evening. Isolated strong storms are possible centered over the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon.
As of the time of analysis, and drafting of this synopsis, the following WATCHES and MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS were in effect:
Pretty much operating in the blind this morning. Model runs have not updated in the F5 DATA software base this morning. However, based on what limited forecast sounding data that I was able to access, the worst of today’s severe weather should be concentrated in the ENHANCED risk area. Based on what I looked at in the SPC text, I do not expect the severity to be near what was experienced yesterday. Based on the limited forecast sounding data, all SPC maps look good. The current system is mainly of an advancing squall line, with some heavier embedded cells. Based on NWS radar loop images, the lines is now in the SW portion of the ENHANCED risk area, and should be entering western GA within the next 2-3 hours. This system is expected to continue advancing east, and should threaten the central and eastern portions of the ENHANCED area approximately near 3:00 – 4:00 p.m. CDT, into the early evening. Storms are expected to weaken this evening, most likely around and after sunset as the boundary layer becomes more stabilized due to lack of daytime heating. Based on the forecast sounding data I do have, the SPC tornado outline appears spot on, and the greatest threat for tornadoes lies in the 5% outline. I cannot rule out that and isolated tornado or two could possibly be significant.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS