HIGH RISK SEVERE WEATHER AREA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED…REQUEST WIDEST DISSEMINATION…ISSUED APR. 02, 2017…4:30 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good evening everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated the following Severe Weather Risk areas in the Day 1 Convective Outlook.  There is a HIGH risk today through the evening hours.  The SPC has also issued a Public Severe Weather Outlook.

…THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA…

…THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS…NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS…

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED FROM PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTH TEXAS TO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN ALABAMA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS


Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SPC PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1
137 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017
…Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight…

* LOCATIONS... Northern Louisiana East Texas Central and southern Mississippi Extreme southern Arkansas

* HAZARDS… Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY… Widespread severe thunderstorms capable of significant tornadoes, severe wind, and severe hail will spread across portions of east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. The greatest risk for tornadoes will exist from portions of far east Texas eastward across northern Louisiana this afternoon and evening and then into central and southern Mississippi tonight.

Preparedness actions… Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

Got a late start due to a long function at church today.  However analysis of the outlook text, and based on my analysis of forecast sounding data from F5 DATA software, using the current NAM-WRF run,  indices indicate that the setup is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  In fact, at the time of analysis and posting of this synopsis a PDS TORNADO WATCH was in effect:

Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 110 (click image for watch particulars)

Based on analysis of forecast sounding data, the following outline indicates where the best tornado probability should lie, from 4:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. CDT.  Indices indicate this an an extremely dangerous situation.  Be aware that any tornadoes that may occur in this area, will most likely be very strong, long track tornadoes within the EF2 – EF5 range.  Index values indicate a very unstable atmosphere capable of producing very large, damaging hail, damaging thunderstorm gusts, and deadly, long tracked tornadoes.  The following is a list of some of the indices shown in the forecast sounding data:

SBCAPE: 2500-3500 j/kg
MLCAPE: 2000-3000 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -8 to -10
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX (EHI): 3 – 8
1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY: 200 – 350
3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY: 250 – 550
SWEAT INDEX: 425 – 525

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 4:00 P.M. – 7:00 P.M. CDT

Residents within the HIGH, MODERATE, and ENHANCED risk areas should closely monitor the sky, NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements, warnings, and advisories, as this event has the potential to become DEADLY!

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR SITE MAP

INTELLICAST RADAR SUMMARY (Click local area once map displays to zoom in)

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (click on graphic, then your area of interest)

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to HIGH RISK SEVERE WEATHER AREA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED…REQUEST WIDEST DISSEMINATION…ISSUED APR. 02, 2017…4:30 P.M. EDT

  1. Mac says:

    Thanks Storm!
    Serious fireworks here in Covington early this morning. As the squall line approached, the flashes of lightning were continuous – almost like a slow strobe light. Pine trees in the back of my house were dancing around at 4AM. No confirmed tornadoes in our immediate area. Several confirmed in central and south central Louisiana with two deaths reported so far. Nearly 3 inches of rain since midnight.

  2. originallt says:

    Don’t see “High” issued too often . Hope everyone will be safe down there!

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