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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued the following risk areas in the day 1 outlook as of the 16300Z update:
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO LA/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO LA/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY…
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO MS RIVER VALLEY…
Severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight from parts of east Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds will be possible especially late this afternoon and tonight.
Based on analysis of the SPC outlook, severe weather should range from this later afternoon, pretty much into late evening, when storms should increase in intensity and coverage across portions of AR/LA. Based on analysis of F5 DATA software, having run both the RAP and NAM-WRF models, I chose to go with the NAM-WRF output, which better resembled the SPC risk area maps. Based on various forecast sounding data, severe weather may begin to initiate over the risk areas somewhere IVO 4:00 p.m. CDT, and slowly progress eastward through the evening. The first map outline indicates where the best probability of overall severe thunderstorms may occur by 4:00 p.m. CDT. The second outline indicates where the best probability may lie for tornadoes to develop. Some isolated tornadoes with stronger cells could be strong and long lived.
F5 DATA NAM WRF BEST SEVERE 4:00 P.M. CDT
F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 4:00 P.M. CDT
By 7:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m.CDT, severe weather should be ongoing in the SPC risk areas. Based on forecast sounding data, the best probability for tornadoes should lie within the following outlines. It is noted, based on tornado parameter indices, that during this time, tornadoes within the SPC 10% and hatched area in the SPC maps above, could be of EF2-EF5 strength, and could be long tracked.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 7:00 P.M. CDT
F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 10:00 P.M. CDT
Residents within the SLIGHT and ENHANCED risk areas should closely monitor the situation throughout the day, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local news stations, and local NWS Statements and/or warnings.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.
The SPC indicates a MODERATE risk for Severe Thunderstorms for tomorrow in the Day 2 Outlook. I work tomorrow through Sat., and will not be able to update. Please click on the SPC activity loop graphic to access the Storm Prediction Center site. You may also use the above graphics which are linked to their respective sites.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS