ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 29, 2017…2:40 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued the following risk areas in the day 1 outlook as of the 16300Z update:

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO LA/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO LA/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO MS RIVER VALLEY…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (This map linked to outlook text)


Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight from parts of east Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds will be possible especially late this afternoon and tonight.

Based on analysis of the SPC outlook, severe weather should range from this later afternoon, pretty much into late evening, when storms should increase in intensity and coverage across portions of AR/LA.  Based on analysis of F5 DATA software, having run both the RAP and NAM-WRF models, I chose to go with the NAM-WRF output, which better resembled the SPC risk area maps.  Based on various forecast sounding data, severe weather may begin to initiate over the risk areas somewhere IVO 4:00 p.m. CDT, and slowly progress eastward through the evening.  The first map outline indicates where the best probability of overall severe thunderstorms may occur by 4:00 p.m. CDT.  The second outline indicates where the best probability may lie for tornadoes to develop.  Some isolated tornadoes with stronger cells could be strong and long lived.

F5 DATA NAM WRF BEST SEVERE 4:00 P.M. CDT

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 4:00 P.M. CDT

By 7:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m.CDT, severe weather should be ongoing in the SPC risk areas.  Based on forecast sounding data, the best probability for tornadoes should lie within the following outlines.  It is noted, based on tornado parameter indices, that during this time, tornadoes within the SPC 10% and hatched area in the SPC maps above, could be of EF2-EF5 strength, and could be long tracked.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 7:00 P.M. CDT

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 10:00 P.M. CDT

Residents within the SLIGHT and ENHANCED risk areas should closely monitor the situation throughout the day, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local news stations, and local NWS Statements and/or warnings.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR SITE MAP

INTELLICAST RADAR SUMMARY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (click on graphic, then your area of interest)

The SPC indicates a MODERATE risk for Severe Thunderstorms for tomorrow in the Day 2 Outlook.  I work tomorrow through Sat., and will not be able to update.  Please click on the SPC activity loop graphic to access the Storm Prediction Center site.  You may also use the above graphics which are linked to their respective sites.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC ACTIVITY LOOP

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 29, 2017…2:40 P.M. EDT

  1. Waterspouts on Lake Pontchartrain! WOW! Even here on the Gulf Coast I’ve only seen one in the last 43 years!
    I saw on the local TV where 2 “storm chasers” were decimated in the Central TX storms yesterday. I consider that a horrid waste! I pray for these poor souls. I hope that the Weather Channel producers and their associates abandon these nonsense embellishments to their programs! We have a much better account with the “likes” of Storm’s Blog than with TWC’s reporting!

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. We’re in for weather in Louisiana, but heavy prayers to Northern Mississippi and Western Tennessee. Thank you again for keeping us alert.

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