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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued the following risk areas in the day 1 outlook as of the 1300Z update:
…THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX…
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EAST OK INTO FAR NORTH TX…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTH KS…WEST AR…AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX…
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF KS/MO/AR/OK/TX…
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER OH VALLEY…
Numerous severe storms with very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected after 4 pm CDT across central and eastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas through this evening.
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS:
DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Based on information contained in the SPC outlook, as per my analysis, the RAP model seems to have the best handle currently on current forecast soundings. I am also including the NAM-WRF, given that the model runs differ in forecast time by at least a couple of hours. Based on analysis of the forecast soundings, modeling suggests the best probability for severe hail, damaging thunderstorm gusts, and some tornadoes lies within the outlined areas, initiating after 4:00 p.m. into early evening. Forecast sounding data indicates some isolated tornadoes could be strong. You’ll notice the dryline on the maps. The severe activity should remain east of the dryline. It appears that daytime heating, and forcing for ascent may be enough to “break the cap” IVO the dryline later this afternoon, hence the late afternoon initiation. I based the outlines on the current forecast dewpoints, humidity, SBCAPE, MLCAPE, STP, EHI, SHOWALTER, and Vorticity values.
Residents within the MODERATE and ENHANCED risk areas should closely monitor the situation throughout the day, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local news stations, and local NWS Statements and/or warnings.
F5 DATA RAP MODEL SOLUTION
F5 DATA NAM-WRF SOLUTION
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
Elsewhere, and area of low pressure continues to develop, north of Hispaniola.
Models are in fair agreement of a surface low eventually closing off, and lowering of pressures is noted in the normalized anomaly maps, with the system becoming a 1006-1003 mb closed low within 36-48 hours.
Currently, upper level winds are not really conducive for full development or tropical development, and the forecast indicates wind shear to remain hostile during the next 2-3 days. However, the current area is situated to the east of the trof axis, which is allowing for some minimal evacuation over a small portion of this system. At the moment, SST’s are warm enough over the area for sub-tropical support, albeit I believe the probability for this is slim, as drier air is noted moving SE toward the area in MIMIC TPW loop imagery, even though the NCEP EMC Cyclogenesis indicates about a 90% probability of tropical development. The current Cyclone Phase Evolution data does show some discrepancies, in that the GFS shows this remaining slightly warm core through the period, with the CMC turning it asymmetric cold core in 72 hours.
NCEP EMC CYCLOGENESIS PROBABILITY
MIMIC TPW LOOP
Current and forecast steering layers maps indicate this low is being blocked by a ridge to its north, and the area is nearly stationary, to slow NNW movement at the moment. Forecast steering indicates this motion to continue for at least the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the ridge to the north collapses, and the steering flow will begin to move this to the NE to ENE, away from the U.S. and any land masses.
I have to work tomorrow, but intend to have an update on both severe weather and this area of interest in the W. Atlantic.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS