SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / 2017 PRE HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST UPDATE…ISSUED MAR. 22, 2017…5:15 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

As my statement reflects : (Expert Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecasts…for your safety…serving the Central U.S. from Tornado Alley, eastward to the Eastern Seaboard, and Gulf Coast States).  This is why I am not posting the Day 1 Outlook, which affects NV/UT.

The SPC has designated severe weather risks for days 2 through 5.  I have to work the next 3 days, so will not be able to issue forecasts.  I may be able to update on late Sun. afternoon.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

Based on information from Weatherbell Analytics, and current forecast sounding data from F5 DATA, the Day 4 outline could be extended as follows….however this parameter is subject to change, given the forecast sounding data is 3.5 days out.

F5 NAM-WRF SATURDAY MAR. 25, 2017

SPC DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

I am leaving the SPC site link here for the next few days, along with the usual graphics, which are linked to their respective sites.  Once you click on the graphics, new graphics, along with pertinent information will display.  This should be enough to give you a heads up, and keep you informed for your safety while I am gone.

SPC SITE LINK

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR SITE MAP

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION

INTELLICAST RADAR SUMMARY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (click on graphic, then your area of interest)

I wanted to touch somewhat briefly on the upcoming hurricane season.  Back on Jan. 17 of this year, based on information contained in the CFSv2 global model, BOM ENSO Wrap Up site, and Dr. Klotzbach’s Qualitative Discussion from CSU, I arrived at the following pre-season forecast: 12-14 total storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes.

However, over the past few months, the CFSv2 has run and updated twice, and an update to the ECMWF EUROSIP Nino plumes was conducted on MAR. 01, 2017.  Based on the new information, including the BOM ENSO Wrap up, there now appears to be a greater probability of an El Nino event during this upcoming season.  However, based on the same information, at the moment, I do not believe this will be a strong event.  My thoughts at the moment are neutral with a very warm bias, to a weak El Nino, with a lesser probability of a moderate event.  Based on the new BOM site trend, it’s led me to choose some different analog years based on the ONI trend of previous seasons.  My previous analog years were 1951, 1984, 2002, 2004, and 2006, which produced an average of 11.6 (12) to 12.5 (13) storms.

The newer updates led me to choose 1963, 1997, and 2002, which produced an average of 9.6 (10).  Based on this, I am more inclined at the moment to reduce my previous numbers to 10-12 NS, 4-6 H, and 2 IH.  Again, this will ALL depend on how accurate the current ENSO updates are.  IF we wind up with more of a “neutral-warm bias” or even an El Nino Modoki, my Jan. forecast should apply.

IF the current factors come to fruition, then we would see an increase in SST anomalies in the Nin0 1 & 2 and 3.4 regions, an increase in wind shear in the MDR, and higher MSLP pressures over the MDR.  The following graphics indicate the update to what I have just mentioned.

NINO REGIONS MAP

MDR (MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION) MAP

POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia ) NINO OUTLOOK

EUROSIP NINO 3.4 PLUMES

EUROSIP SST ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR JJA

CFS v2 NINO PLUMES

CFSv2 SST ANOMALIES FORECAST JAS

CFSv2 200-850 MB WIND ANOMALIES (SHEAR)

CURRENT SST ANOMALIES

Based on current and forecast SST anomalies, once again, I do not expect too much of an active MDR with long tracked, organized systems.  However, given the warmer anomalies close in to the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, once again, we may have to stay aware of close in development, and “home brew”, which could ramp up quickly and possibly make landfall in the U.S.  Again, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, this all hinges on if and when we see a true El Nino develop, and how much of a “lag time” exists.

I will be fine tuning my forecast either near the end of May, or the beginning of June.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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