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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued the following severe weather risk areas in today’s day 1 outlook as of 1300Z:
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN AL AND NORTHERN GA… .
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EASTERN OZARKS TO NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA…
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE CAROLINAS…
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL VALLEY…
Hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ozarks across the Tennessee Valley to the southern Appalachians. An enhanced corridor of damaging-wind risk now appears more probable from middle Tennessee to northeastern Alabama and northern Georgia. An isolated severe storm or two, capable of hail, damaging gusts and/or a tornado, may develop across portions of the California Central Valley.
Analysis of the SPC outlook text, and data from F5 DATA software regarding various forecast sounding data, tends to indicate that damaging thunderstorm gusts and hail to be the main factor today. Based on analysis of moisture fields (RH and Dew-point), Lifted Indices, SBCAPE/MLCAPE, Totals Total Index, Showalter Index, ans SWEAT Index, the most probable period for severe weather initiation appears to be from approximately 2:00p.m. CST – 5:00 p.m. CST. Based on the analyzed parameters, the areas with the highest probability should be within the outlined areas on the following F5 DATA maps. At the time of my analysis, the NAM-WRF model was down, and analysis was performed with the RAP model. Again, damaging thunderstorm gusts and hail should be the primary threat, albeit an isolated tornado cannot be rule out in stronger cells. The best isolated tornado probs should be closer toward the center of the outlined areas based on forecast sounding analysis. Bear in mind, forecast soundings may differ as the models update this afternoon:
F5 DATA RAP MODEL 2:00 P.M. CST BEST SEVERE
F5 DATA RAP MODEL 5:00 P.M. CST BEST SEVERE
Based on forecast sounding details, the atmosphere is currently forecast to dry out near the surface, soon after 5:00 p.m. CST with falling humidity and surface dewpoints.
The SPC indicates a probability for severe thunderstorms for Fri. and Sat. I will touch on this somewhat tomorrow afternoon, however will not be able to issue forecasts on either, as I work both Fri. and Sat.
The following graphics do not update, but are linked to their respective sites. Click on the image to receive current graphics and information.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS