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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS TO EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO…
20Z – 00Z
00Z – 04Z
Scattered thunderstorms are possible through evening across parts of the Midwest eastward to the Appalachians. Isolated storms are also forecast across parts of the Intermountain West to north-central Plains, and parts of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
Based on information contained in the SPC outlook text, and forecast sounding data from F5 DATA software, severe thunderstorm activity should cover a small area today as outlined int he SPC outlook map, and based on forecast sounding data at the time of my analysis, could include the following outlined areas for today into early afternoon (1st outline map), and late afternoon into early evening (2nd outline map). Based on mid level lapse rates and lifted indices, some of the more intense, isolated cells, if experienced, could produce hail, which may approach severe limits, within the SPC hail probability outline. Albeit not indicated on the SPC maps at the time of analysis, forecast sounding data by both the NAM-WRF and RAP models tends to indicate some isolated severe thunderstorms could be experienced over portions of lower MO. / Upper AK. late afternoon/early evening.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF
Based on forecast sounding data, models suggest the thunderstorm probability in the SPC map above, may extend further SW in the following outline. At the moment, there is uncertainty as to whether or not this probability will produce a marginal severe risk.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF
SPC indicates a marginal risk for a large portion of TN in tomorrows outlook. I intend to have an update on this sometime tomorrow morning.
The following graphics do not update, but are linked to their respective sites. Click on the image to receive current graphics and information.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS