SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 20, 2017…11:45 A.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS TO EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK 16Z – 20Z

20Z – 00Z

00Z – 04Z

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered thunderstorms are possible through evening across parts of the Midwest eastward to the Appalachians. Isolated storms are also forecast across parts of the Intermountain West to north-central Plains, and parts of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

Based on information contained in the SPC outlook text, and forecast sounding data from F5 DATA software, severe thunderstorm activity should cover a small area today as outlined int he SPC outlook map, and based on forecast sounding data at the time of my analysis, could include the following outlined areas for today into early afternoon (1st outline map), and late afternoon into early evening (2nd outline map).  Based on mid level lapse rates and lifted indices, some of the more intense, isolated cells, if experienced, could produce hail, which may approach severe limits, within the SPC hail probability outline. Albeit not indicated on the SPC maps at the time of analysis, forecast sounding data by both the NAM-WRF and RAP models tends to indicate some isolated severe thunderstorms could be experienced over portions of lower MO. / Upper AK. late afternoon/early evening.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF

Based on forecast sounding data, models suggest the thunderstorm probability in the SPC map above, may extend further SW in the following outline.  At the moment, there is uncertainty as to whether or not this probability will produce a marginal severe risk.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF

SPC indicates a marginal risk for a large portion of TN in tomorrows outlook.  I intend to have an update on this sometime tomorrow morning.

The following graphics do not update, but are linked to their respective sites.  Click on the image to receive current graphics and information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR SITE MAP

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (click on graphic, then your area of interest)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 20, 2017…11:45 A.M. EDT

  1. Welcome back Storm! So what’s in a key-stroke? I remember it was March 21 (not 20) that a group of us went to Judsonia, AR, 64 years ago, to help set up communications following an F4 tornado that was devastating to White county. Let’s hope nothing like that is in the near future (or far!). Once in a lifetime is enough!

  2. dellamom says:

    Glad to have you back, Storm. Even if the trip wasn’t stellar, it was time away, presumably with loved ones. Thank you for leaving us with tools. They don’t match the real deal, but are a comfort to have when bad weather is threatened and you are away.

  3. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, just a note: on your top 2 lines, you have the wrong date. You say March 29. It should be March 20th! Oops!

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