SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 14, 2017… 11:00 A.M. EST

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk this morning over a small portion of the MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL AREA…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO AFTERNOON…ELSEWHERE FROM THE TX COASTAL BEND TO EAST TX AND WESTERN LA…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE MS RIVER MOUTH TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN SLIGHT-RISK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS AND AL…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY
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SPC DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
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SPC HAIL PROBABILITY
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A line of heavy to severe thunderstorms was currently moving through eastern TX at the time of analysis.  The following TORNADO WATCH is in effect until 1: 00 p.m. CST

TORNADO WATCH 0032 (LINKED)
ww0032_radar

Information contained in the SPC outlook text suggests by early mid afternoon, a general decrease in upper level support, and inflow layer instability, as the system moves DEEPER into LA.  The current system is QLCS in nature, and severe weather and any tornadoes will be within stronger supercells embedded in the QLCS.

Currently, the greatest tornado threat lies within the outlined area from SPC, and within the tornado watch area, which is verified by analysis of the 12Z NAM model.  Analysis of forecast soundings using the NAM from F5 DATA suggests, as this systems progresses to the east throughout this afternoon, the greatest threat for tornadoes (albeit tornadoes could still develop within the SPC 2% outline) should lie within the following outlined areas, until approximately 1:00 p.m. CST.  As the system continues east today, a lull should occur as it approaches into western LA, as based on the above information per SPC, although some lingering, isolated supercells cannot be ruled out as of the time of this synopsis. 

F5 NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5data-nam-1

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The system is forecast to re-energize throughout tonight, into early Wed. morning, when the severe weather and tornado threat may increase.  The following outlines represent, based on forecast soundings, where the greatest probability of tornadoes could occur, after 10:00 p.m. CST.  It is noted, based on current forecast soundings, that an isolated strong tornado or two could occur, closer to the southern portion of the outline areas.  This activity should spread into the Florida Panhandle area sometime after midnight.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5data-nam-10pm

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

Residents along the ENHANCED and SLIGHT risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements regarding this severe weather.  The following graphics are linked for you to click to retrieve up to date information.  The NWS Hazard and Warnings display will provide you with up too date NWS information and warnings for your area.

SPC CURRENT WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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NWS HAZARD AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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14 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 14, 2017… 11:00 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Up to 63F here in Stamford CT. this Feb. 19th, at 1:31pm. Nice and sunny too, gentle W. wind at 4mph. Normal high up here for today is about 42F!!

  2. dellamom says:

    Please keep the people of New Zealand in your prayers. It is Summer there, heading toward Spring, and the Christchurch area, which has had quite a few devastating earthquakes in the past several years, has been having wildfires. My nephew and his partner live in Hillsboro, which was just inside the area marked yesterday to be watchful of fires or smoke, although the actual fires have not spread to them.

  3. Thanks Storm,
    Driving down the road the Island-road this morning I got caught in the greatest down-pour I’ve experienced in my 86 years. I had to go to get some tests for “chest pains”, but as I expected, they were not cardiac related. Still more tests slated for tomorrow, but I really don’t expect them to be any more productive!. At my age any thing can and does happen, You called it! Bad weather on the “Coastal Bend” area!

    It looks like I’ll be able to drive down the Island again tomorrow with much less excitement!

  4. Monty says:

    EF1 near Van Vleck and an EF2 near Stafford. Numerous damage to structures and multiple injuries. Sure more confirmations to come

  5. dellamom says:

    Hello? remember us? our area already HAD our tornadoes. Seriously, thank you, Storm. I will let all concerned know to be on alert tonight. Mac, we just recently had a whole-house generator installed. I hope neither of us needs our generator this time around.

  6. Mac says:

    Thanks Storm. Here we go again! Got the gennie out of my shed…

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