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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
Upon analysis of the Global Models and NAM model, snow will continue over the New England area and NEUS. An area of low pressure is currently progged to develop east of the New Jersey coast by later this evening (00Z), and is forecast to briefly move ENE, before moving more toward the east early to late morning on Monday. As this system moves to just south of the Gulf of Maine, based on analysis of MLSP, rapidly falling pressures indicate a probability of explosive cyclogenesis, with pressures dropping from 993mb to 979mb in just 6 hours, and peaking to 963mb SE of Nova Scotia by 1:00 a.m. EST on Tues. morning.
Based on analysis of forecast surface winds over the water, sustained winds are forecast to reach 40-55 kts east of Cape Cod, and over a good portion of the Gulf of Maine, and winds 35 kts near the NJ coastal region, and to 40+ knots near 72.0W. Given the strength of the surface winds close to the coast, and ongoing snowfall, I cannot rule out blizzard conditions near and just inland of the coastal regions.
Significant sea heights over the Gulf of Maine and Cape Cod area may range from 9-10 ft along the coast, and 19-24 ft mainly over the extreme southern portion of the Gulf of Maine, and east of Cape Cod approximately 100-130 from the coast. Given that the winds will be out of the NW over the Gulf of Maine region, I am calling for coastal flooding and beach erosion of northward facing beaches along the coast of Maine, and especially for the Cape Cod Bay coastal areas. South of Cape Cod, winds should remain offshore. Boaters should remain in-port, and commercial Mariners should take necessary actions to avoid this area if possible, and monitor NOAA Offshore Forecasts over the nest 48-72 hours.
The following are maps from the GFS and NAM regarding MSLP, wind speed, precipitation type, and accumulated snowfall amounts.
GFS MLSP/PRECIPITATION TYPE
GFS 48 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
NAM MSLP/PRECIPITATION TYPE
NAM 48 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
The following are significant wave height maps from “STORMSURF” Wave Watch:
The following graphics are linked to their perspective sites. For up to date/real time information, please mouse over the graphics and “click” on them. You can retrieve NWS statements, advisories and warning by clicking on the NWS Hazards and Warning map by clicking on your area of interest.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS