PORTIONS OF THE NE AND NEW ENGLAND…POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS / COASTAL FLOODING FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 12, 2017…3:55 P.M. EST.

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!

Good day everyone!

Upon analysis of the Global Models and NAM model, snow will continue over the New England area and NEUS.  An area of low pressure is currently progged to develop east of the New Jersey coast by later this evening (00Z), and is forecast to briefly move ENE, before moving more toward the east early to late morning on Monday.  As this system moves to just south of the Gulf of Maine, based on analysis of MLSP, rapidly falling pressures indicate a probability of explosive cyclogenesis, with pressures dropping from 993mb to 979mb in just 6 hours, and peaking to 963mb SE of Nova Scotia by 1:00 a.m. EST on Tues. morning.

Based on analysis of forecast surface winds over the water, sustained winds are forecast to reach 40-55 kts east of Cape Cod, and over a good portion of the Gulf of Maine, and winds 35 kts near the  NJ coastal region, and to 40+ knots near 72.0W.  Given the strength of the surface winds close to the coast, and ongoing snowfall, I cannot rule out blizzard conditions near and just inland of the coastal regions.

Significant sea heights over the Gulf of Maine and Cape Cod area may range from 9-10 ft along the coast, and 19-24 ft mainly over the extreme southern portion of the Gulf of Maine, and east of Cape Cod approximately 100-130 from the coast.  Given that the winds will be out of the NW over the Gulf of Maine region, I am calling for coastal flooding and beach erosion of northward facing beaches along the coast of Maine, and especially for the Cape Cod Bay coastal areas.  South of Cape Cod, winds should remain offshore.  Boaters should remain in-port, and commercial Mariners should take necessary actions to avoid this area if possible, and monitor NOAA Offshore Forecasts over the nest 48-72 hours.

The following are maps from the GFS and NAM regarding MSLP, wind speed, precipitation type, and accumulated snowfall amounts.

GFS MSLP/WIND
gfs_mslp_uv10m_east_5

GFS MLSP/PRECIPITATION TYPE
gfs_ptype_slp_east_3

gfs_ptype_slp_east_5

GFS 48 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_9

NAM MSLP/WIND
nam_mslp_uv10m_east_5

nam_mslp_uv10m_east_9

NAM MSLP/PRECIPITATION TYPE
nam_ptype_slp_east_5

nam_ptype_slp_east_10

NAM 48 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
nam_3hr_snow_acc_east_17

The following are significant wave height maps from “STORMSURF” Wave Watch:

NEW ENGLAND (CLICK FOR LOOP)
newengland_sea_15

NEW JERSEY (CLICK FOR LOOP)
nj_sea_13

The following graphics are linked to their perspective sites.  For up to date/real time information, please mouse over the graphics and “click” on them.  You can retrieve NWS statements, advisories and warning by clicking on the NWS Hazards and Warning map by clicking on your area of interest.

NWS HAZARD AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
us

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP
usa_none_anim

ridge_sitemap

OPC ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST (CLICK ON YOUR BASIN)
atl_offshore_800px

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS, Winter. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s