SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 06, 2017…3:10 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

outlook-category-descriptions

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms mainly tonight FROM THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY…

There is a MARGINAL risk that surrounds the SLIGHT risk area.

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms with a threat for isolated hail and wind damage may develop across parts of the Ozarks northeastward into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys tonight.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS (CATEGORICAL MAP IS LINKED)
day1otlk_1630

day1probotlk_1630_torn

day1probotlk_1630_wind

day1probotlk_1630_hail

Analysis of the SPC Outlook text message, and analysis of F5 DATA software maps indicates the environment in the slight risk will likely remain “capped”, through this afternoon.  Analysis of forecast soundings from F5 DATA indicates what SPC mentions about the eastward expansion of a moisture plume, which was evident in both humidity and dewpoint analysis, and a notable increase in 300k isentropic mixing ratios.  Analysis also indicates steepening lapse rates this evening of 7.5-8.0 c/km.  This should be enough to overcome the “cap”.  Forecast soundings suggest that initiation of the severe activity to be approximately around 10:00 p.m. EST this evening, with peak activity between approximately 1:00 a.m. –  4:00 a.m. tomorrow morning.

Based on a blend of the NAM-WRF and RAP model solutions in the forecast soundings the greatest probabilities for the strongest severe thunderstorms and isolated tornado activity lies within the following outlined area.  Severe weather and various tornado parameters suggest a probability of some isolated tornado activity into extreme SE OK.  The first map is the outline alone, and the second shows some of the indices and parameters regarding the outline.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5data-nam-1am-stp

F5 DATA NAM-WRF FORECAST SOUNDING DATA
f5data-nam-1

The following are some of the indices observed, with the higher values being located over much of Arkansas into extreme SE OK:

SWEAT INDEX: 400-500
LIFTED INDEX: -2 to -6
SHOWALTER INDEX: -2 to -4
TOTALS TOTALS INDEX: 56 – 58
SBCAPE: 1000 – 1500
MLCAPE: 1000 – 1500
3km VGP: 0.5 – 0.9
700-500mb LAPSE RATE: 7.5 – 8.0 c/km
1km HELICITY: 200 – 300
3km HELICITY: 300 – 350
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER: 6+
SURFACE DEWPOINT: 60F
EHI: 2 to 5

SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS

Residents within the SLIGHT risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local news stations, as well as local NWS office statements.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following graphics are linked to their sites, for up to date graphics and information.  The graphics do not update automatically here on my site. Please click the graphics for up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
us

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION
usa_none_anim

ridge_sitemap

The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms in tomorrows outlook, and will be addressed in tomorrows synopsis.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0700

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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