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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms mainly tonight FROM THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY…
There is a MARGINAL risk that surrounds the SLIGHT risk area.
Severe thunderstorms with a threat for isolated hail and wind damage may develop across parts of the Ozarks northeastward into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys tonight.
Analysis of the SPC Outlook text message, and analysis of F5 DATA software maps indicates the environment in the slight risk will likely remain “capped”, through this afternoon. Analysis of forecast soundings from F5 DATA indicates what SPC mentions about the eastward expansion of a moisture plume, which was evident in both humidity and dewpoint analysis, and a notable increase in 300k isentropic mixing ratios. Analysis also indicates steepening lapse rates this evening of 7.5-8.0 c/km. This should be enough to overcome the “cap”. Forecast soundings suggest that initiation of the severe activity to be approximately around 10:00 p.m. EST this evening, with peak activity between approximately 1:00 a.m. – 4:00 a.m. tomorrow morning.
Based on a blend of the NAM-WRF and RAP model solutions in the forecast soundings the greatest probabilities for the strongest severe thunderstorms and isolated tornado activity lies within the following outlined area. Severe weather and various tornado parameters suggest a probability of some isolated tornado activity into extreme SE OK. The first map is the outline alone, and the second shows some of the indices and parameters regarding the outline.
The following are some of the indices observed, with the higher values being located over much of Arkansas into extreme SE OK:
SWEAT INDEX: 400-500
LIFTED INDEX: -2 to -6
SHOWALTER INDEX: -2 to -4
TOTALS TOTALS INDEX: 56 – 58
SBCAPE: 1000 – 1500
MLCAPE: 1000 – 1500
3km VGP: 0.5 – 0.9
700-500mb LAPSE RATE: 7.5 – 8.0 c/km
1km HELICITY: 200 – 300
3km HELICITY: 300 – 350
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER: 6+
SURFACE DEWPOINT: 60F
EHI: 2 to 5
Residents within the SLIGHT risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local news stations, as well as local NWS office statements.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
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Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS