SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY SYNOPSIS…MORE WINTER WEATHER…ISSUED FEB. 04, 2017…7:15 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good evening everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms for Monday, across the OZARKS VICINITY AND EAST INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms are expected during the second half of the period from the Arkansas/Missouri vicinity across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area. Showers and sporadic lightning are also expected from parts of the Pacific Northwest east into the Intermountain region.

SPC DAY 3 CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
day3otlk_0830

day3prob_0830

At this time, upon analysis of the SPC Outlook text, forecast steepening lapse rates over portions of the Ozarks, mid MS Valley, and OH. Valley could lead to more ample CAPE development which would initiate stronger updrafts.  This could produce hail in excess of severe levels.  However, in my opinion at the moment, given only a 5% probability for severe weather, I am currently not looking for any appreciable tornado threat.  I will know more on Monday however, once I can analyze forecast soundings on Monday.

The SPC is currently designating a 15% probability risk area from the Ohio Valley, southward into portions of the Mississippi Valley for Tuesday.

SPC DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
day4prob

At the current time, I won’t have any idea as to what type of severe threats may be experienced, until I can analyze and assess forecast sounding indices and parameters on Tuesday morning.

I will try to have complete, update information for you on both Monday and Tuesday, barring any unforeseen circumstances.

By late Tuesday morning into Wednesday, the models are calling for another storm (low pressure area) to develop over the extreme upper Midwest, bringing mainly rain over the area, however with snow and frozen precipitation being located north of the low center, which could most likely affect the NE states and New England area.  I will try to have a little bit on the winter stuff, hopefully tomorrow, and provide model projected snowfall accumulation totals through 72-96 hours.

GFS MSLP AND PRECIPITATION TYPE
gfs_ptype_slp_east_13

gfs_ptype_slp_east_15

NAM MSLP AND PRECIPITATION TYPE
nam_ptype_slp_east_25

nam_ptype_slp_east_28

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY SYNOPSIS…MORE WINTER WEATHER…ISSUED FEB. 04, 2017…7:15 P.M. EST

  1. Dr. Howard Berg says:

    Thank you for your expertise and hard work. It is truly appreciated!!!!

    On Feb 4, 2017 8:15 PM, “WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE and SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER” wrote:

    > palmharborforecastcenter posted: “Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated > with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction > Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result > of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. (T. F.” >

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