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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good evening everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms for Monday, across the OZARKS VICINITY AND EAST INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS…
Thunderstorms are expected during the second half of the period from the Arkansas/Missouri vicinity across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area. Showers and sporadic lightning are also expected from parts of the Pacific Northwest east into the Intermountain region.
At this time, upon analysis of the SPC Outlook text, forecast steepening lapse rates over portions of the Ozarks, mid MS Valley, and OH. Valley could lead to more ample CAPE development which would initiate stronger updrafts. This could produce hail in excess of severe levels. However, in my opinion at the moment, given only a 5% probability for severe weather, I am currently not looking for any appreciable tornado threat. I will know more on Monday however, once I can analyze forecast soundings on Monday.
The SPC is currently designating a 15% probability risk area from the Ohio Valley, southward into portions of the Mississippi Valley for Tuesday.
At the current time, I won’t have any idea as to what type of severe threats may be experienced, until I can analyze and assess forecast sounding indices and parameters on Tuesday morning.
I will try to have complete, update information for you on both Monday and Tuesday, barring any unforeseen circumstances.
By late Tuesday morning into Wednesday, the models are calling for another storm (low pressure area) to develop over the extreme upper Midwest, bringing mainly rain over the area, however with snow and frozen precipitation being located north of the low center, which could most likely affect the NE states and New England area. I will try to have a little bit on the winter stuff, hopefully tomorrow, and provide model projected snowfall accumulation totals through 72-96 hours.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS