DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 23, 2017…1:30 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!

Good day everyone!

First, I’d like to say I hope everyone in the path of yesterdays severe weather is safe today.

Given the high risk issued yesterday, the SPC Storm Reports page only indicated 5 tornadoes, with hail and high winds being the majority of the threat.

Thinking back on everything, model guidance was pretty much CRAP! in regards to agreement of the modeling.  The NAM-WRF did a fair job with forecast parameters as far as probable location of where tornadoes could be experienced, however the high forecast indices of the model, suggested more tornad0 activity than what we experienced, with more strong, long track tornadoes.  It is my belief that SPC thought the same, thus warranting a high risk area yesterday.

SPC FILTERED STORM REPORTS FOR JAN. 22, 2017
170122_rpts_filtered

Elsewhere, the area of low pressure currently exiting the coastal area of GA/SC will continue to move offshore today for the next 6-8 hours, then make a turn toward the north, developing into a coastal storm.  Based on analysis of the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and regional model NAM-WRF, modeling suggests somewhat of a strong low pressure system, which will remain close enough to the U.S. East Coast, to cause strong onshore winds to affect mostly the NJ and New England coastal areas.  At the time of analysis, models suggested sustained winds close/along the coastal regions of 40 to possibly 45 mph with higher gusts, and sustained winds offshore of 50+ mph, with 50 mph winds over the Gulf of Maine as the storm progresses north.

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK IMAGES FOR ANIMATION)
geir404

gevis04

GFS FORECAST MAPS
gfs_mslp_uv10m_east_2

gfs_mslp_uv10m_east_3

gfs_mslp_uv10m_east_5

CMC GGEM FORECAST MAPS
cmc_mslp_uv10m_east_3

cmc_mslp_uv10m_east_5

NAM-WRF FORECAST MAPS
nam_mslp_uv10m_east_5

nam_mslp_uv10m_east_7

Seas close to the coast could reach 12-13 ft for NJ, with seas offshore of 21 ft near 73W, and sea heights over the Gulf of Maine 17-21 ft.

STORMSURF PROJECTED SEA HEIGHTS FOR NJ/NEW ENGLAND REGION (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)
nj_sea_7

newengland_sea_11

This system may bring heavy rain along the coast, with moderate to heavy snow well inland over higher elevations, albeit models vary in agreement on snowfall totals and intensity.

GFS 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_13
CMC 72 HOURS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
cmc_snow_acc_east_13

NAM 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
nam_3hr_snow_acc_east_25

Given the easterly fetch, and high winds, some coastal flooding could be experienced at time of high tide, with beach erosion likely.  Residents of these coastal areas are urged to remain away from the beaches and stay off the water until the system passes.

As this system clears, another low begins to develop near the four corners region, moving into the upper Midwest, bring more snow and wintry precipitation to the region by early Wednesday morning.

NAM 46 HOUR FORECAST
nam_namer_015_10m_wnd_precip

ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  The NWS Hazards map must be clicked on in order to bring up the map website.  Once there, click on your area of interest regarding any NWS warnings, and real time statements from your local NWS office.  The NWS DOPPLER RADAR NATIONAL graphic will allow you to bring up the Doppler Radar location map.  Click on the location you want once the map comes up.

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING MAP

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

NWS DOPPLER RADAR NATIONAL PAGE
ridge_sitemap

Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/satellite-radar-page/

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 23, 2017…1:30 P.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Thanks for all you do, Storm. But even though the models weren’t reliable this time, I’d rather they tell me it will be worse than it actually becomes so I prepare, than tell me it will be better than it becomes and I get caught unprepared or in danger. Luckily for us, you tell us what you think it will be and what it might otherwise be so we are prepared for anything.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Just getting into here in Sw CT. Rain has picked up. winds North at 10-20mph., WHG at my house. Winds right by the water much stronger. NJ, has been hit pretty hard all ready.my temp. is 36F, Baro. 29.68″ and steady for the past hour or so. Mod. rain. at 7:11pm.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s