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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
First, I’d like to say I hope everyone in the path of yesterdays severe weather is safe today.
Given the high risk issued yesterday, the SPC Storm Reports page only indicated 5 tornadoes, with hail and high winds being the majority of the threat.
Thinking back on everything, model guidance was pretty much CRAP! in regards to agreement of the modeling. The NAM-WRF did a fair job with forecast parameters as far as probable location of where tornadoes could be experienced, however the high forecast indices of the model, suggested more tornad0 activity than what we experienced, with more strong, long track tornadoes. It is my belief that SPC thought the same, thus warranting a high risk area yesterday.
Elsewhere, the area of low pressure currently exiting the coastal area of GA/SC will continue to move offshore today for the next 6-8 hours, then make a turn toward the north, developing into a coastal storm. Based on analysis of the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and regional model NAM-WRF, modeling suggests somewhat of a strong low pressure system, which will remain close enough to the U.S. East Coast, to cause strong onshore winds to affect mostly the NJ and New England coastal areas. At the time of analysis, models suggested sustained winds close/along the coastal regions of 40 to possibly 45 mph with higher gusts, and sustained winds offshore of 50+ mph, with 50 mph winds over the Gulf of Maine as the storm progresses north.
Seas close to the coast could reach 12-13 ft for NJ, with seas offshore of 21 ft near 73W, and sea heights over the Gulf of Maine 17-21 ft.
This system may bring heavy rain along the coast, with moderate to heavy snow well inland over higher elevations, albeit models vary in agreement on snowfall totals and intensity.
Given the easterly fetch, and high winds, some coastal flooding could be experienced at time of high tide, with beach erosion likely. Residents of these coastal areas are urged to remain away from the beaches and stay off the water until the system passes.
As this system clears, another low begins to develop near the four corners region, moving into the upper Midwest, bring more snow and wintry precipitation to the region by early Wednesday morning.
ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites. The NWS Hazards map must be clicked on in order to bring up the map website. Once there, click on your area of interest regarding any NWS warnings, and real time statements from your local NWS office. The NWS DOPPLER RADAR NATIONAL graphic will allow you to bring up the Doppler Radar location map. Click on the location you want once the map comes up.
Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS