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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
I don’t have time to do a full in depth analysis, however THIS IS AN URGENT UPDATE TO LAST NIGHT’S SYNOPSIS :
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a major severe weather outbreak today and/or tonight.
Evidently the NAM-WRF model solution appears to have been correct: A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TODAY
…THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA…NORTH FLORIDA…AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…
…THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA…FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA… …THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA…FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AREA…
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES… …THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST…
A severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak is expected today across north Florida and south Georgia, with the significant severe threat also expected to extend southward into central Florida and northeastward into South Carolina this evening.
Significant tornado outbreak expected today across north Florida and south Georgia
This synopsis regards the Severe Weather Threat for tomorrow, Sunday, Jan. 22, 2017. I am posting this now, as I will not be at home tomorrow afternoon…I will be attending a church function. PLEASE, make use of the graphics that are posted…they could save your life.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA…SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA…SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA…
There is a SLIGHT risk ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
There is a MARGINAL risk …ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST…and ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA…INCLUDING THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA…
As stated in previous text on this site, I only cover severe weather form mid USA (Tornado Alley, eastward), hence CA is not included in my analysis and synopsis.
Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Sunday into Sunday night.
Based on analysis of information contained in the SPC Day 2 Outlook, there will be considerable strengthening of the 850 mb flow across parts of northern FL., SE GA, and possibly northward into the SC Coastal Plain region. SPC indicates there are some details that differ in the deterministic models, however SOC is putting weight into the current solution of the ECENS and SPC SREF models. The parameters and indices I analyzed this evening from the SREF, seem to be closer to an indication of an ENHANCED risk. Analysis this evening of the NAM-WRF model form my F5 DATA software, indicated some very high values of certain indices such as STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) and CAPE values of 1000-2500 j/kg, while SREF indicates 500-800 in certain areas. I kind of have to disregard the STP values, as some of the indications showed STP’s in some of the risk area of 17-21, which has the tendency to indicate a dramatic increase in probability of EF2-EF5 tornadoes. Along with some of the other parameters observed in the forecast soundings from the NAM-WRF, they would tend to indicate an upgrade to a moderate risk, along with long tracked, strong tornadoes. The soundings may be erroneous, as I’ve seen soundings like this with the NAM early on in the day sometimes, only for them to change vastly within one model run. However, based on the outlines, which would tend to match where the highest values from the SREF model lie in the risk area, the following maps are outlined as to where the greatest threat for isolated tornadoes may exist, as well as where the strongest ones could develop, with stronger, discrete supercells, or stronger cells that may be associated with any squall line. Albeit the hatched significant probability makes it over the FL. Peninsula, to my location over West Central Florida, the most threatening weather should be further north, especially over portions of GA and the Carolina’s area. However, the chance always exist of an isolated tornado with any rotating cells that may develop. Based on forecast soundings, residents within the ENHANCED risk area could see all of the severe threats. Based on the CAPE values projected by the SREF, and forecast Lifted Indices from both the NAM and SREF, hail may be probable, but at the moment, based on the information at hand, may not be significant, as far as very large, damaging hail. I am not expecting significant tornadoes (EF2-EF5), unless conditions in the atmospheric dynamics and forecast soundings change between now and then. Damaging thunderstorm winds and gusts will most likely be occurring as well. SPC, and model data suggests the onset of severe weather for the SE to be approximately 1:00 p.m. EST through 7:00 p.m. EST.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY SOLUTION
PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK TO ACCESS THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAP FOR SUNDAY:
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS
Please read carefully…ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites. The first 4 maps you must “click” on in order to retrieve the CURRENT, UP TO DATE GRAPHICS. Up to date graphics will then post, along with pertinent information for the first 2 SPC displays. The NWS Hazards map must be clicked on in order to bring up the map website. Once there, click on your area of interest regarding any NWS warnings, and real time statements from your local NWS office. The NWS DOPPLER RADAR NATIONAL graphic will allow you to bring up the Doppler Radar location map. Click on the location you want once the map comes up.
Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS office statements and warnings.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS