SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY BRIEF…ISSUED JAN. 18, 2017…2:50 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a 15% Severe Weather probability for days 4 and 5 in the forecast period, which will be Saturday and Sunday.

SPC DAY 4 AND 5 SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY OUTLOOK (TEXT IS LINKED)
day4prob

day5prob

Information in the current text product indicates there could be a more significant severe potential for Sunday, and SPC is monitoring.  I did not perform any forecast sounding analysis, as with the probabilities 4-5 days out, it’s a little useless, as conditions will change in the atmosphere between now and then.

I will not be here to cover the severe weather threat on Sat. as I work.  I will try to have a synopsis as early as I can on Sunday afternoon, barring any unforeseen circumstances…however severe weather could already be in progress.

Please use the following linked sites by clicking on them for up to date information regarding this while I am away.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING MAP
us

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_none_anim

Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/satellite-radar-page/

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY BRIEF…ISSUED JAN. 18, 2017…2:50 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Feel better Storm. Big “talk” up here is for the potential Nor’Easter Mon/Tuesday. We’ll see. I’ll check in Sunday to see if you post on it. Thanks again. P.S. it would be a “rainy” Nor’Easter for us near the I95 Corridor.- Not snow.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I had seen a few days ago that my area was in the 15% zone thanks to your lovely tools. I hope your stomach issues are better.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s