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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good evening everyone!
Since we have another few quiet days from the central U.S., eastward, regarding winter weather, and the next severe weather probability out 5-6 days, I took the opportunity to do some research and analyze some items such as what is forecast for La Nina/El Nino, past ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) values, and trends which come close to the current ENSO update, and decided to issue a PRELIMINARY, pre 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Seasonal Forecast. This forecast is based on what the models indicate at the moment, as far as what the state of El Nino may be by the time we reach hurricane season, and during the peak.
Based on analysis of the ENSO prediction from the BOM (Bureau Of Meteorology), and the CFS v2 model, it appears at the moment the forecast calls for ENSO NEUTRAL conditions, and possibly a warm bias.
Based on the values and trends shown, I performed analysis of the ONI chart. Based on both forecast values, and oceanic trend, I chose some years which came fairly close, some in values, others in trend. I came up with the years 1951, 1984, 2002, 2004, and 2006, which produces an average of 11.6 (12) to 12.5 (13).
Based on this, I currently came up with 12-14 total storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes. These figures are close to what Dr. Klotzbach from CSU indicates in his current Qualitative Discussion:
These figures could change, depending on what happens with the NINO 3.4 region as we get closer to June. H0wever, if the CFS forecast is correct, these totals could come to fruition. Two positive factors stick out on the current CFS forecast…Wind Shear over the Atlantic MDR is forecast to be below normal or average, and cooling in the Gulf of Guinea is forecast. The latter has a tendency, because of of the different pressure gradient, to allow the ITCZ/Monsoon trof to move further north, and into the Sahel region of Africa. This could produce greater rainfall totals over the region, which would reduce the SAL.
So, if the models are accurate in the forecast, and no appreciable changes occur, this is what I believe the preliminary forecast to be as far as totals.
Of course, as the season draws close, actual SST’s and anomalies will have to be figured in, as well as ocean heat content.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS