SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / WINTER WEATHER BRIEF… ISSUED JAN. 16, 2016…12:20 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good afternoon everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL  risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

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Analysis of the SPC outlook text, and forecast sounding values and parameters indicate the atmosphere to have limited instability with weak lapse rates, and MUCAPE values at or below 500 j/kg.  Based on the outlook, a 2% tornado probability is extending int0 portions of Arkansas and Missouri.  Analysis of both the RAP and NAM models however, indicate any cells that may spawn a tornado should be more likely over portions of TX/LA.  Based on the limited instability and weak lapse rates, I am not looking for any strong tornadoes.  Any tornado activity should be isolated in stronger cells.  Residents within the risk area will see this activity from now, with showers and storm re-developing later this afternoon into early evening.

Residents in the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements.

F5 RAP MODEL TORNADO PROB.
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SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATED INFORMATION)
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY (CLICK IMAGE)
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK TO UPDATE)
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The following NWS Hazard and Warning map is linked.  Click on your area for up to date NWS information.

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY

Based on current model analysis and guidance, it appears the majority of the U.S. may be free from snowfall during the next 5-7 days.  Extremely cold temperatures remain in place, mainly over the central and western third of the country.  Temperatures each day will slowly modify, with day four (96 hours) showing a somewhat significant modification in temperatures.

CURRENT
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GFS 96 HOUR INTERPOLATED STATION MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
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Over the next couple of weeks, on my time off when possible, I’m going to try and look at things, and see if I can come up with some analog years, and try to post an early pre season hurricane forecast.

Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/satellite-radar-page/

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / WINTER WEATHER BRIEF… ISSUED JAN. 16, 2016…12:20 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm! Hey Monty , good to hear from you! Your Houston Texans had a pretty good season! (Don’t know if you root for them or any sports team! Or Maybe you are still a Bronco fan! )LOL.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Had a confirmed Tornado on the ground not too far away. No damage to speak of.

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