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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good afternoon everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY…
Analysis of the SPC outlook text, and forecast sounding values and parameters indicate the atmosphere to have limited instability with weak lapse rates, and MUCAPE values at or below 500 j/kg. Based on the outlook, a 2% tornado probability is extending int0 portions of Arkansas and Missouri. Analysis of both the RAP and NAM models however, indicate any cells that may spawn a tornado should be more likely over portions of TX/LA. Based on the limited instability and weak lapse rates, I am not looking for any strong tornadoes. Any tornado activity should be isolated in stronger cells. Residents within the risk area will see this activity from now, with showers and storm re-developing later this afternoon into early evening.
Residents in the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements.
The following NWS Hazard and Warning map is linked. Click on your area for up to date NWS information.
Based on current model analysis and guidance, it appears the majority of the U.S. may be free from snowfall during the next 5-7 days. Extremely cold temperatures remain in place, mainly over the central and western third of the country. Temperatures each day will slowly modify, with day four (96 hours) showing a somewhat significant modification in temperatures.
GFS 96 HOUR INTERPOLATED STATION MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
Over the next couple of weeks, on my time off when possible, I’m going to try and look at things, and see if I can come up with some analog years, and try to post an early pre season hurricane forecast.
Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS