SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 15, 2017…3:50 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good afternoon everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO FAR SOUTHERN OK…

There is a  MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AND TORNADO/HAIL/DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY MAPS
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day1probotlk_1630_torn

day1probotlk_1630_hail

day1probotlk_1630_wind

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY (CLICK FOR UP TO DATE WATCH AREAS)
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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Analysis of forecast sounding data from F5 DATA software, based on the RAP model solution, severe weather should be initiating in the western portion of the risk area as I am typing this.  Look for some surface based storms early in the threat period, then becoming more of discrete and line embedded suprcells later in the afternoon, as the line of storms progresses toward the east.  Forecast sounding data parameters and indices indicate the larger hail threat should remain with the SPC outlined area, based on where the greatest Lifted Indices, and CAPE values were located.  The SPC has noted they have made a very slight change to the tornado risk outline, but analyzing this, does not appear to have deviated to much from the prior 1630Z map.  Based on analysis of the RAP model forecast of various tornado parameters, the greatest threat for tornadoes, mostly isolated in embedded supercells, should occur between 3:00 p.m. CST through 6:00 p.m. CST, based on when the strongest indices and parameters are forecast to occur, and within the following outline:

F5 DATA RAP MODEL BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5data-rap

Based on RAP model output, strongest tornadoes (s0me isolated strong) should be from the southern half of the state, but closer to the southern portion of the following outline.

RAP MODEL STRONG TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5data-rap-2

Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements regarding this severe weather.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following NWS Hazard and Warning map is linked.  Click on your area for up to date NWS information.

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY
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At the time of this post, the following Mesoscale Discussion 52 was active:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 52 (LINKED)
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK TO UPDATE)
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Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/satellite-radar-page/

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 15, 2017…3:50 P.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    thank you Storm. I hope you are feeling better. My husband just had a fourth surgery on his lower leg and the found he has MRSA. Prayers would be appreciated.

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