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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good afternoon everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO FAR SOUTHERN OK…
…There is a MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…
Analysis of forecast sounding data from F5 DATA software, based on the RAP model solution, severe weather should be initiating in the western portion of the risk area as I am typing this. Look for some surface based storms early in the threat period, then becoming more of discrete and line embedded suprcells later in the afternoon, as the line of storms progresses toward the east. Forecast sounding data parameters and indices indicate the larger hail threat should remain with the SPC outlined area, based on where the greatest Lifted Indices, and CAPE values were located. The SPC has noted they have made a very slight change to the tornado risk outline, but analyzing this, does not appear to have deviated to much from the prior 1630Z map. Based on analysis of the RAP model forecast of various tornado parameters, the greatest threat for tornadoes, mostly isolated in embedded supercells, should occur between 3:00 p.m. CST through 6:00 p.m. CST, based on when the strongest indices and parameters are forecast to occur, and within the following outline:
F5 DATA RAP MODEL BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
Based on RAP model output, strongest tornadoes (s0me isolated strong) should be from the southern half of the state, but closer to the southern portion of the following outline.
Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements regarding this severe weather.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The following NWS Hazard and Warning map is linked. Click on your area for up to date NWS information.
At the time of this post, the following Mesoscale Discussion 52 was active:
Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS