WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION/TROPICAL ATLANTIC FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 10, 2017…1:15 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Winter weather discussions only cover from the central U.S., and eastward.  Given that winter weather can be vastly expansive, time does not allow for me to go very in depth into items such as detailing the forecast for various areas, or exact calculations for snowfall, to when a mix might begin or end (etc.), as compared to severe weather projections and hurricane forecasts.  The winter weather discussion is meant to give the viewer a general idea as to what to expect during the forecast times mentioned.  The NWS Hazard and Warnings map will allow you to view up to date forecast discussions for your area, or the area you are interested in.

Abbreviations and Acronyms can be found by clicking the “Abbreviations” header located under the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft of my site logo.

5:30 p.m. EST…CORRECTION TO FORECAST TEXT…DELETED Tidewater area for snowfall…

Good day everyone.  Still a little under the weather (no pun intended), but wanted to post an update.

Analysis this morning of both the GFS and NAM models indicated moderate to heavy snow  will continue today over the upper Midwest clearing that area approximately by late tonight.  Current snowfall, some heavy in spots is forecast to continue over the Central Ohio Valley and the NE and New England states today and tonight, and into the PA/ NJ area by Wednesday, and is forecast to clear the East coast by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening.  The system braining this weather is located over the Great Lakes/Canadian border, and is forecast to strengthen as it lifts NNE.  As this occurs, winds will increase from the S and SSE over a good portion of the NE and New England areas.  Blizzard conditions could be possible over the area, and a portion of the Eastern Great Lakes region late tonight/early Wednesday morning.

NAM MODEL 15 HOUR 1000-500 MB/PRECIPITATION FORECAST

nam_namer_015_10m_wnd_precip
NAM 84 HOUR/GFS AND CMC 120 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL TOTALS FORECAST
nam_3hr_snow_acc_east_29
gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_21
cmc_snow_acc_east_21

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK FOR ANIMATION AND CURRENT RADAR MAP)
usa_none_anim

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE FORECAST FOR JAN. 11, 2017
freeze1

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA)
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Analysis of the Global Models GFS, ECMWF, and CMC, indicates a somewhat significant lowering of pressures in the Central Atlantic in about 48 hours in the 500 mb forecast maps and surface maps, well NNE of the Lesser Antilles, and developing a closed 1010 mb low.  It doesn’t appear that any tropical development will occur with this, and appears more baroclinic in nature as the low phases with the 500 mb trof.  Models do move this slowly southward toward the Lesser Antilles, however the low eventually becomes an open trof by days 5-7.  I will not be able to monitor this again until Sunday, however there doesn’t seem to be any threat to the islands.  I will have another look at this on Sunday afternoon to see what is going on.  I have on;y displayed the GFS on this post.  The ECMWF indicates a more significant pressure height fall.

GFS
gfs_mslp_sig_atlantic_9
gfs_mslp_sig_atlantic_27

Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/satellite-radar-page/

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION/TROPICAL ATLANTIC FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 10, 2017…1:15 P.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    I hear you, Port A. Louisiana north of Lake Pontchartrain was hit with hard freezes last week, and this week our temps are going to be above normal … highs in the upper 70s and lows in the lower 60s. Keep taking care of yourself, Storm. Prayers to all in the snow, particularly those with limited resources to fend off the cold.

  2. Port Aransas Beach Bum says:

    The Gulf along S TX looks good for a few days! Won’t have to shiver too much at night!

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