ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…REQUEST WIDEST DISSEMINATION…ISSUED JAN. 02, 2017…12:40 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Winter weather discussions only cover from the central U.S., and eastward.  Given that winter weather can be vastly expansive, time does not allow for me to go very in depth into items such as detailing the forecast for various areas, or exact calculations for snowfall, to when a mix might begin or end (etc.), as compared to severe weather projections and hurricane forecasts.  The winter weather discussion is meant to give the viewer a general idea as to what to expect during the forecast times mentioned.  The NWS Hazard and Warnings map will allow you to view up to date forecast discussions for your area, or the area you are interested in.

Abbreviations and Acronyms can be found by clicking the “Abbreviations” header located under the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft of my site logo.

Good day everyone!

The  Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated the following Severe Thunderstorm risk areas in the Day 1 Convective Outlook:

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon and evening from Louisiana across much of the central Gulf Coast States. All severe hazards will be possible including damaging winds and tornadoes, especially across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORIES
outlook-category-descriptions

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY

SPC DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

SPC HAIL PROBABILITY

Based on my analysis of both the SPC outlook, and forecast sounding data from the 12Z run of the RAP model, and 06z run of the NAM-WRF, instability and moisture is forecast to increase over the enhanced risk and slight risk areas, east of LA by late afternoon.  Forecast humidity and dewpoint values have been forecast to increase to 80-90% (RH), and 65F-70F (DP)  with mid level lapse rates reaching 7.0 – 8.0 C/km over much of MS/AL late this afternoon (approximate time 4:00 p.m. CST).  MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg will be available later this afternoon, mainly over the southern half of the mentioned area. However, conditions are forecast to be favorable for tornado development over the entire SLIGHT risk area with any stronger, rotating cells embedded within the approaching QLCS and any bowing segments.

Based on analysis of this mornings forecasts soundings, once again, tornadoes will be probable over the SLIGHT risk area, with the higher probability remaining within the ENHANCED risk area.  Forecast sounding parameters and indices suggest some tornadoes that may develop, could be strong and long tracked, and should reside within the SPC 10% Tornado probability outline.  Based on forecast sounding analysis of both the RAP and NAM-WRF models, each model indicates a slightly different outline in the following F5 DATA maps, as to where the stronger tornado activity could be experienced.

Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather RADIO and local NWS Statements and warnings regarding today’s severe weather.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

RAP / NAM -WRF STRONG TORNADO PROBABILITY OUTLINEf5data-rap

f5data-namstor

The following SPC graphics are linked…click on them for updated graphics and ext, regarding watches and mesoscale discussions.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

The following NWS hazards display is linked…click on your area or area of interest for up to date, real time information from the NWS.

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY
us

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP FORT POLK, LA
poe-n0q-20170102-1713

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP JACKSON, MS
dgx-n0q-20170102-1714

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP BIRMINGHAM, AL
bmx-n0q-20170102-1713

Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/satellite-radar-page/

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…REQUEST WIDEST DISSEMINATION…ISSUED JAN. 02, 2017…12:40 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Snow storm just beginning for me in Stamford CT. Probably I’ll get about 4″ give or take an inch. But area to my East, like Se Mass. , RI., and eastern Long Island could get over a foot! with blizzard conditions possible. “Virga” over me now. just waiting for the first flakes to fly! I’ll let you know my final totals! Take care, Storm, and all!

  2. Mac says:

    Safe but soggy. 7.5 inches of rain since Saturday afternoon.

  3. RitaFitz says:

    I am on the coast of MS with 3 hours to go with the warnings. Tons of rain and strong wind gusts at times, but no damage, some local flooding.

  4. dellamom says:

    Thank you Storm. DMac near me, and Greg and Mike in mobile, I hope all of you stay safe

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