SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 01, 2017…3:35 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Winter weather discussions only cover from the central U.S., and eastward.  Given that winter weather can be vastly expansive, time does not allow for me to go very in depth into items such as detailing the forecast for various areas, or exact calculations for snowfall, to when a mix might begin or end (etc.), as compared to severe weather projections and hurricane forecasts.  The winter weather discussion is meant to give the viewer a general idea as to what to expect during the forecast times mentioned.  The NWS Hazard and Warnings map will allow you to view up to date forecast discussions for your area, or the area you are interested in.

happy-new-year-2017-images-for-whatsapp-2

Good day everyone!

I haven’t forgotten all of you.  I had to work all of this past week, except for Wed., to which I had tons of personal business to attend to.

The  Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over a portion of CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX…

There is a MARGINAL risk FROM A PORTION OF TX INTO THE GULF COAST REGION…

…SUMMARY…
A marginal risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening across a part of the Gulf Coast region. Meanwhile, a greater severe-weather threat is expected to develop across portions of Texas later tonight.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS
day1otlk_1630

day1probotlk_1630_torn

day1probotlk_1630_wind

day1probotlk_1630_hail

SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORIES
outlook-category-descriptions

Based on information contained in the outlook, the main threats should be the probability of some large hail associated with the strongest supercells, along with damaging wind in any bowing segments.  A few tornadoes remain a possibility within the area marked with the 5% outline.

However, based on the current forecast sounding data from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, I analyzed the NAM-WRF output, as the RAP data has not cycled out to the time period of when the bulk of severe weather should occur.  Based on my analysis of this data, large and significant hail could very well occur, based on SBCAPE parameters of 1000-2000 j/kg, and Lifted Indices of -6 to -8 within the risk area.  SPC indicates the severe weather should occur late tonight and into the overnight hours, with modeling suggesting around midnight through 3:00 a.m. CST.  A few tornadoes could occur within the SPC tornado probability area.  Analysis of the forecast sounding parameters from the NAM-WRF model tend to indicate the best probability for tornadoes to occur, lie within the circled area in the following F5 DATA map.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5data-nam

Although not mentioned in the outlook, there is a probability that some tornadoes in the tornado probability area, could have the potential to become significant, strong and long tracked within the following outlined area, again from around midnight, onward.  Although parameters could change between now and then, I am basing this on various tornado forecast parameters such as VGP of greater than 0.5, EHI of 1-3, and STP of 6-10, along with a few other indicators.  Again, these could change over the course of the next model run, however this is the information I had to work with upon analysis.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO PROBABILITY (BASED ON 12Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
f5data-namstor

Residents within the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and monitor their local NWS office for further statements and/or warnings.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

The following SPC graphics are linked, as the graphics do not update automatically.  Just click on the graphic for the updated image and text.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

The following NWS Hazard and Warnings display is linked.  Click on your area, or area of interest for the updated image and NWS Statements.

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAYus

The SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms over a portion of the LOWER MS VALLEY in the current Day 2 Convective Outlook.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK / PROBABILITY MAPS
day2otlk_1730

day2probotlk_1730_any

AT the time of my analysis, forecast soundings were pretty much inconclusive as far as backing an ENHANCED risk.  I will be analyzing the situation tomorrow, and intend to have a full update sometime tomorrow.

Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/satellite-radar-page/

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 01, 2017…3:35 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Happy, Healthy, and SAFE New Year to you and your loved ones, Storm!! All the Best. 🙂

  2. Mac says:

    Happy New Year Storm! SE Louisiana is still under an enhanced risk of severe weather until 9PM tonight. The personal weather station that is a couple of blocks from my house is reporting 3.7 inches of rain on Saturday, and 1.7 inches yesterday! Not many fireworks on New Year’s eve…

  3. Port Aransas Beach Bum says:

    And, Sr. Chief, We haven’t forgotten all you do for us! May the new year be one of the best!

    Happy New Year! Don’t spend it all in one place!

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