WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 19, 2016…12:25 EST

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

In case anyone is wondering, my winter weather discussions only cover from the central U.S., and eastward.  With that said, the 12Z model runs were not complete as of time of analysis and distribution, so all information is based mainly on the 06Z run of the global and regional models.

The current snow in progress should be exiting extreme northern MN. and northern Great Lakes by this evening, then returning to northern MN. / WI. by Tues. morning, then over a portion of MI. by Tues. evening.

Snowfall should be entering the Dakotas by very early Wed. morning, and continue to move eastward, into the upper Midwest (MN, WI, and MI) by Wed. afternoon.  I am looking for lake effect snow by Thur. morning, affecting MI., and a small portion of northern NY state.  As this system progresses east, snow should then extend into much of NY state, southward into western PA., into OH., and portions of W. VA., and KY. by Thur. evening.

A Gale Warning is currently in effect for the Great Lakes.

Based on analysis of the global and regional model 1000-500 mb thickness charts, with temperature overlay, I expect frigid temperatures to keep a grip on most of the CONUS for at least the next 4 days, before modification takes shape.  The following are temperature profiles from the various models for 24 hours out in the forecast:

GFS 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE PROFILE
gfs2mtemp

CMC 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE PROFILE
cmc-2mtemp

 NAM 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE PROFILE
nam

GFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
gfs-interp

Based on forecast snowfall accumulation maps form the global models, total snowfall accumulations do not look significant over the next 5 days.

GFS 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
gfs_6hr_snow_acc_lower48_21
CMC 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECASTcmc_snow_acc_conus_21

ECMWF 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
ecmwf_tsnow_lower48_21
RAMSDIS EASTERN AND WESTERN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
geir404

gwir404

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)
usa

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)
us

INTELLICAST FREEZE OUTLOOK
freeze1

PLEASE!…REMEMBER YOUR PETS…if it’s too cold for you, it’s probably too cold for your pet, so keep your animals inside.

ASPCA PET COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS
pet-care_cold-weather-tips_main-image

I will not have an update tomorrow, as work calls.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 19, 2016…12:25 EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you for the forecast and for the pet tips. We are looking at a Christmas in the 70s, but freezing or near-freezing temps leading up to that. And thanks for the pet tips as well. Pets are often overlooked in cold-weather planning.

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