WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 17, 2016…7:45 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good evening everyone!

Given I had to work today, it’s kind of late in the game for me to pinpoint a severe weather forecast.  The SPC did go to an ENHANCED threat for today.  Please use the link for updates to TORNADO WATCH #517

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

On the winter side of the house, snow should continue over portions of the South Central Plains, and begin to shift east into the Great Lakes area and Ohio valley within the next 12 hours, and stretching into the Canadian Provinces.  Snow and winter mix is forecast to progress eastward, leaving the Ohio Valley and entering the NE and New England areas early Sunday afternoon.  As this occurs, the low pressure area associated with this system is forecast to tighten up over NY, and is forecast to move into Canada by early Sunday morning, around sunrise, and begin to deepen, becoming a 999 mb low WNW of Nova Scotia.  As the low deepens, mariners can expect winds well offshore from the Tidewater region, northward, to become around 30-35 knots within the next 21-24 hours.with seas running around 12-14 ft.  Wins and seas should begin to subside by late Sunday evening.

Expect freezing temperatures to remain over portions of the deep south during the next 72 hours, before temperatures begin to modify, and warmer air slowly begins to move north.  However, mid to upper 30’s for minimum temperatures are expected to remain over the south through days 5-6 in the period.  I’ll be revisiting this, as I prefer to go out only around 72 hours to 96 hours out in the period for winter weather, given that slight changes can mean a big difference.

The following graphics are all linked, and will provide you up to date information, animations, or close up…depending on the graphic.

GFS 1000-500 MB THICKNESS AND PRECIPITATION
gfs_namer_006_1000_500_thick

gfs_namer_015_1000_500_thick

gfs_namer_022_1000_500_thick

STORMSURF WAVEWATCH WIND VELOCITY AND SEA HEIGHT LOOPS
eus_wind_24hr

eus_height_30hr

GFS 10 METER WIND FORECAST
gfs-10m

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP
usa

GFS STATION INTERPOLATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST 72 HOURS
gfs-interp

GFS / ECMWF 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
gfs_tot_snow_conus_13

ecmwf_tsnow_conus_13

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE FORECAST
freeze1

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY…CLICK FOR CURRENT INFORMATION ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST
us

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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