WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 12, 2016…12:45 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

Upon analyzing global models this morning, there doesn’t appear to be any significant modification in temperatures during the next 72 hours, with the majority of the coldest air remaining confined to the northern 3/4 of CONUS.  By day 4 (96-102 hours), colder air once again begins to push south, with mid to upper 30’s once again extending into portions of the FL. Panhandle., with some isolated low 30’s.  Based on model animations, this cold blast should begin to modify, with clod air beginning to retreat northward by day 5-6 (120-132 hours) with a decent warm up in the south-central plains and along the Gulf coast with warmer temperatures over the FL. Peninsula.

GFS STATION INTERPOLATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST (102 HOURS)
gfs-interp

F5 DATA GFS GENERAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST 102 HOURS
f5-gfs-sfctemp

GOES EAST IR4 SATELLITE LOOP
geir404

GOES WEST IR4 SATELLITE LOOP
gwir404

Areas over the NE and New England regions currently receiving snow and winter precipitation, should begin to see clearing in approximately 12-18 hours, with  more snow forecast to fall over the Great Lakes / Ohio valley region within the next 24 hours, with snow pushing into NY and PA by late Tues. afternoon, with another round of possible heavier snow forecast for Thurs/Fri time period.  As this latter event occurs , a series of low pressure systems will move northward, well offshore, with the most powerful rolling NNE, east of Nova Scotia at around 102 hours in the forecast period from 12Z this morning .  This low is forecast to bring 35-40 kt winds well off shore, and close to the Gulf of Maine, along with high seas.

GFS 10M WIND FORECAST
gfs-10m

The following are projected sustained winds and sea heights from the StormSurf WaveWatch site.  Just click the map for the animation.

STORMSURF WINDS FORECAST (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)
eus_wind_102hr

STORMSURF SEA HEIGHTS FORECAST (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)
eus_height_108hr

I recommend mariners use the following Atlantic Offshore Forecast map, which is linked.

ATLANTIC OFFSHORE MARINE FORECAST
atl_offshore_800px

The following are forecast snowfall accumulation maps for the next 5 days (120 hours in the period) from the GFS, ECMWF, and F5 DATA (utilizing GFS data).

GFS
gfs_tot_snow_conus_21
ECMWF
ecmwf_tsnow_conus_27
F5 DATAf5-gfs-snow-120

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR (SNOW, ICE, RAIN) [CLICK FOR ANIMATION]
usa

INTELLICAST FREEZE FORECAST
freeze1

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)
us

I will try to have another update on Wed. sometime if time allows.  I work tomorrow, and Thu.-Sat.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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