SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE…ISSUED DEC. 10, 2016…6:00 P.M. EST

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good evening everyone!

I wanted to post the special Tropical Synopsis, as the feature in the Caribbean should be moving into Nicaragua late tonight or early tomorrow.  Due to the hour, I will not have a winter weather discussion, but will say, temperatures are forecast to still remain very cold, down into the FL. Panhandle during the next 24 hours, then temperatures begin to modify, with a warmup limited to the extreme south.  I will have a winter weather discussion when I post my next full update on Monday.

Well, it appears the global models got it right.  Earl this morning, a 1010 mb low was on the TAFB Surface analysis map.  Current satellite loop imagery indicates this disturbance (TROPICAL WAVE) has moved westward during the day, and is located near 10.0N;81.0 W.  It is my take, that it was not labeled an INVEST, given the quick movement toward the west, proximity to land, and unfavorable upper level winds.  Earlier satellite images indicated this wave looked a little organized earlier in the day, however wind shear has increased.  Given these parameters, I do not see any development happening with this wave.  It is noted, that the global models indicated a 1010 mb low during my previous forecast analysis, with the exception of the NAVGEM showing sub 990 mb.

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK ON IMAGE)
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Elsewhere, I am not seeing anything in the models that indicate any major snow event from the central to eastern U.S. over the next 5 days.

GFS / ECMWF 5 DAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
gfs_tot_snow_conus_21


Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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