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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good evening everyone!
I wanted to post the special Tropical Synopsis, as the feature in the Caribbean should be moving into Nicaragua late tonight or early tomorrow. Due to the hour, I will not have a winter weather discussion, but will say, temperatures are forecast to still remain very cold, down into the FL. Panhandle during the next 24 hours, then temperatures begin to modify, with a warmup limited to the extreme south. I will have a winter weather discussion when I post my next full update on Monday.
Well, it appears the global models got it right. Earl this morning, a 1010 mb low was on the TAFB Surface analysis map. Current satellite loop imagery indicates this disturbance (TROPICAL WAVE) has moved westward during the day, and is located near 10.0N;81.0 W. It is my take, that it was not labeled an INVEST, given the quick movement toward the west, proximity to land, and unfavorable upper level winds. Earlier satellite images indicated this wave looked a little organized earlier in the day, however wind shear has increased. Given these parameters, I do not see any development happening with this wave. It is noted, that the global models indicated a 1010 mb low during my previous forecast analysis, with the exception of the NAVGEM showing sub 990 mb.
Elsewhere, I am not seeing anything in the models that indicate any major snow event from the central to eastern U.S. over the next 5 days.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS