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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good evening everyone!
GFS surface analysis 1000-500 mb thickness map from 12Z, and current NWS Doppler radar indicate patchy light to moderate snow continues over portions of ND, MN, and WI. Snow should begin to clear out of ND by late Thu. morning, and begin to move out of MN and WI by early Fri. morning, with snow and winter precipitation moving into MI sometime around or shortly after 2-3 a.m. on Thu., with the snow progressing eastward toward NY and PA by Thu. afternoon. The next low will begin to bring snow and winter precipitation to the Dakotas area by Sat. morning, which will progress eastward across most of the northern Midwest states, then into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, and eventually into the NE/New England area, and extend into a portion of the Northern Piedmont over extreme western portions of VA/NC, and small portions of KY/TN, by day 5 in the forecast period, from 12Z this morning. As a general rule of thumb, snow begins behind the blue “540” thickness contour, where precipitation is indicated in green.
The coldest air of the season however, is forecast to plunge pretty far south during the next 72 hours, with freezing temperatures reaching into a portion of the FL. Panhandle, and is reflected in the GFS and NAM Station Interpolated Minimum Temperature Forecast. Temperatures should begin to slowly modify approximately 36 hours after, with warmer temperatures taking shape.
Elsewhere, analysis of the global models today still indicates the majority of the models agree on some sort of low pressure developing in the extreme SW Caribbean Sea within the next 96-120 hours, and moving west into Nicaragua. Given the consistency of the models, I cannot rule this out, however models are agreeing on a weaker low than previously forecast. Based on my analysis of the GFS wind shear forecast, upper level winds through the period are forecast to now be marginal for development. The ECMWF Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability forecast indicates a 30% probability of a Tropical Depression between 96-120 hours.
This will be my final synopsis until either Sat. evening, or late Sun. afternoon.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS