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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
There is a plethora of weather to go over today.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA….
Based on the time of issuance of the SPC outlook, the severe weather threat was most likely, into late morning. Based on current NWS Doppler Radar, the line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the threat, is now approaching west central FL., and is beginning to clear out of GA. Within the next few hours, this line should clear most of the FL. peninsula, diminishing the threat. SPC had indicated a thin sliver of a 2% tornado prob over GA., however forecast soundings via F5 DATA indicated the best probability within the outlined area. Any tornadic activity will most likely be confined to isolated stronger thunderstorm cells that display rotation.
Get ready, as some frigid air is forecast to plunge south, with some freezing, to close to freezing temperatures reaching the FL. Panhandle in about 4-5 days. In fact, here in West Central FL., model output is calling for a minimum temperature by Sat. morning, down to 45-47F. Not much in the way of winter precipitation with the exception of possible light to medium snow over potions of northern CO and KS by Wed., possibly turning to ice late Wed., and snow reaching NY and PA by Wed. morning, with a short break, then snow, turning possibly to ice on Thurs., based on current surface analysis of the GFS and NAM models. There doesn’t appear to be much in the way of snowfall accumulation over the next 5 days.
Elsewhere (yes, I know the hurricane season is supposed to end on Nov. 30), analysis of the global models over the past 48 hours, indicates the models are in fair agreement of a weak low, possibly tropical depression developing close to the same area in the W. Caribbean that spawned OTTO, and pretty much following the same track. I cannot rule this out just yet, as the current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates the upper level pattern may be somewhat conducive for development. The NAVGEM has been the most bullish for the past 48 hours, however given its performance this season, I am considering it an outlier at this time. I will continue to monitor this area over the next few days, to see if anything comes to fruition. IF something does, I will try to update you when I can.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS