SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION / POSSIBLE CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT? FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 06, 2016…12:00 NOON EST

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

There is a plethora of weather to go over today.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA….

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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day1probotlk_1300_torn

Based on the time of issuance of the SPC outlook, the severe weather threat was most likely, into late morning.  Based on current NWS Doppler Radar, the line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the threat, is now approaching west central FL., and is beginning to clear out of GA.  Within the next few hours, this line should clear most of the FL. peninsula, diminishing the threat.  SPC had indicated a thin sliver of a 2% tornado prob over GA., however forecast soundings via F5 DATA indicated the best probability within the outlined area.  Any tornadic activity will most likely be confined to isolated stronger thunderstorm cells that display rotation.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL TORNADO PROB
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SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY (CLICK FOR UPDATED MAP)
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY (CLICK FOR UPDATED MAP)
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK ON IMAGE FOR UPDATE)
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATED INFORMATION)
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Get ready, as some frigid air is forecast to plunge south, with some freezing, to close to freezing temperatures reaching the FL. Panhandle in about 4-5 days.  In fact, here in West Central FL., model output is calling for a minimum temperature by Sat. morning, down to 45-47F.  Not much in the way of winter precipitation with the exception of possible light to medium snow over potions of northern CO and KS by Wed., possibly turning to ice late Wed., and snow reaching NY and PA by Wed. morning, with a short break, then snow, turning possibly to ice on Thurs., based on current surface analysis of the GFS and NAM models.  There doesn’t appear to be much in the way of snowfall accumulation over the next 5 days.

GFS STATION INTERPOLATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
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gfs-min-2

GFS AND ECMWF 5 DAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
gfs_tot_snow_conus_21

ecmwf_tsnow_conus_21Elsewhere (yes, I know the hurricane season is supposed to end on Nov. 30), analysis of the global models over the past 48 hours, indicates the models are in fair agreement of a weak low, possibly tropical depression developing close to the same area in the W. Caribbean that spawned OTTO, and pretty much following the same track.  I cannot rule this out just yet, as the current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates the upper level pattern may be somewhat conducive for development.  The NAVGEM has been the most bullish for the past 48 hours, however given its performance this season, I am considering it an outlier at this time.  I will continue to monitor this area over the next few days, to see if anything comes to fruition.  IF something does, I will try to update you when I can.

GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_23

gfs_mslp_sig_carib_25

ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY
ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_24

ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_26

CMC GGEM
cmc_slp_qpf6_carib_22

NAVGEM
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nav_precip_mslp_mex_25

UKMET
ukm2-2016121200-144-lant-troplant-prp-fcst-gentracker

FIM8
fim8-2016121012-108-lant-troplant-prp-fcst-gentracker

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION / POSSIBLE CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT? FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 06, 2016…12:00 NOON EST

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm. Had no snow here in Stamford, but if one went to Danbury and points N, they got a trace to 1.5″, Altitude dependent up there. I did get 0.42″ of a cold rain!

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. For the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain, they’re predicting a low of 28 Wednesday night and just raised Thursday night’s low to 29 from 24. I’m not a fan of freezing temps, but will take them over hurricanes. Keep safe and healthy, my friend.

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