SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 05, 2016…1:40 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms, over parts of LA…MS…AL…GA…AND FL…

There is a MARGINAL risk over portions of the SE states.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS
day1otlk_1630

day1probotlk_1630_torn

day1probotlk_1630_wind

day1probotlk_1630_hail

Based on my analysis of forecast sounding data from F5 DATA Severe Weather Forecast software, and given the 5% probability for tornado activity contained in the SPC outlook, the RAP model tends to indicate the best probability for tornadic activity to lie within the white outline on the F5 Data surface map.  Based on various tornado parameters, the red outline I have added on the map indicates where the probability of the strongest tornadoes could occur.  Based on forecast sounding values, I am not expecting any significant tornadoes at the moment, unless there is a change later today in forecast sounding data.  The main threat appears to be damaging thunderstorm winds, and the probability of isolated tornadoes.  Based on forecast CAPE and L.I values, the hail probability is fairly low, and is reflected in the SPC outlook at less than 5% for all areas within the risk areas.  Based on the model analysis, the strongest activity may occur around 3:00-4:00 p.m. CST this afternoon, through 8:00 p.m. CST this evening.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
rap-f5

Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather radio and local NWS statements regarding any real time updates to the scenario.

ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  The graphics do not update automatically on my site, so please check back often, and click the graphics for real time updates.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)
us

NWS DOPPLER RADAR MAPS (CLICK ON IMAGES TO PLAY LOOPS)
imap_radar

wrad_se

usa

COD METEOROLOGY RADAR LINK
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Much colder weather is on the way within the next 4 days, with temperatures in the mid to upper 30″s extending as far south as the Florida Panhandle.  Due to time constraints on getting the severe weather synopsis issued, I will try and have the winter weather discussion thrown in tomorrow.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 05, 2016…1:40 P.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. We are expecting our first sub-freezing temps of the winter later this week. Brrrrrrr.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s