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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms, over parts of LA…MS…AL…GA…AND FL…
There is a MARGINAL risk over portions of the SE states.
Based on my analysis of forecast sounding data from F5 DATA Severe Weather Forecast software, and given the 5% probability for tornado activity contained in the SPC outlook, the RAP model tends to indicate the best probability for tornadic activity to lie within the white outline on the F5 Data surface map. Based on various tornado parameters, the red outline I have added on the map indicates where the probability of the strongest tornadoes could occur. Based on forecast sounding values, I am not expecting any significant tornadoes at the moment, unless there is a change later today in forecast sounding data. The main threat appears to be damaging thunderstorm winds, and the probability of isolated tornadoes. Based on forecast CAPE and L.I values, the hail probability is fairly low, and is reflected in the SPC outlook at less than 5% for all areas within the risk areas. Based on the model analysis, the strongest activity may occur around 3:00-4:00 p.m. CST this afternoon, through 8:00 p.m. CST this evening.
Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather radio and local NWS statements regarding any real time updates to the scenario.
ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites. The graphics do not update automatically on my site, so please check back often, and click the graphics for real time updates.
COD METEOROLOGY RADAR LINK
Much colder weather is on the way within the next 4 days, with temperatures in the mid to upper 30″s extending as far south as the Florida Panhandle. Due to time constraints on getting the severe weather synopsis issued, I will try and have the winter weather discussion thrown in tomorrow.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS