TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 15
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AREA TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI…
There is a SLIGHT risk ELSEWHERE FROM EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA…
There is a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY…
Please click on the following maps often, as they do not update automatically on this site.
Based on my analysis of the SPC information, and analysis of current severe weather forecast soundings, information suggests that over the northern portion of the enhanced risk area, thunderstorm activity could be in the form of more of a squall line type regime, with some isolated to discreet rotating cells capable of producing isolated tornado activity. Forecast soundings suggest that the best probability for severe weather, especially discreet supercells capable of producing tornadoes, lies within the white and red outline shown on the F5 DATA map. Best severe weather prob should lie within the white outline, with the strongest storms and tornado prob within the red outline. Based on analysis of the forecast EHI and STP soundings, I am not expecting any significant tornadoes at the moment, unless conditions become more favorable for these types of storms between now and late this afternoon/early evening. I expect the bulk of the activity between 1pm – 6pm CST.
Based on forecast soundings of SBCAPE and Lifted Index, I do not foresee significant hail at this time, which should be scattered to isolated events.
The main threat today appears to be damaging thunderstorm gusts/straight line winds.
Residents within the SLIGHT and ENHANCED risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements for current information regarding any watches and warnings for their area.
Please use the following map for up to date information regarding your area, by clicking on your area of interest.
This will be my last update, as I work tomorrow. IF anything is going on come Wednesday, I’ll try to have an update.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS