SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 28, 2016…12:00 NOON EST

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!

CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 15
HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AREA TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI…

There is a SLIGHT risk ELSEWHERE FROM EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA…

There is a MARGINAL risk  SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

day1probotlk_1630_torn

day1probotlk_1630_wind

day1probotlk_1630_hail

Please click on the following maps often, as they do not update automatically on this site.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

Based on my analysis of the SPC information, and analysis of current severe weather forecast soundings, information suggests that over the northern portion of the enhanced risk area, thunderstorm activity could be in the form of more of a squall line type regime, with some isolated to discreet rotating cells capable of producing isolated tornado activity.   Forecast soundings suggest that the best probability for severe weather, especially discreet supercells capable of producing tornadoes, lies within the white and red outline shown on the F5 DATA map.  Best severe weather prob should lie within the white outline, with the strongest storms and tornado prob within the red outline.  Based on analysis of the forecast EHI and STP soundings, I am not expecting any significant tornadoes at the moment, unless conditions become more favorable for these types of storms between now and late this afternoon/early evening.  I expect the bulk of the activity between 1pm – 6pm CST.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE/TORNADO PROB AREA
nam-wrf-f5

Based on forecast soundings of SBCAPE and Lifted Index, I do not foresee significant hail at this time, which should be scattered to isolated events.

The main threat today appears to be damaging thunderstorm gusts/straight line winds.

Residents within the SLIGHT and ENHANCED risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements for current information regarding any watches and warnings for their area.

Please use the following map for up to date information regarding your area, by clicking on your area of interest.

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
us

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR…CLICK FOR ANIMATION
usa

This will be my last update, as I work tomorrow.  IF anything is going on come Wednesday, I’ll try to have an update.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 28, 2016…12:00 NOON EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Time to shift attention away from the tropics and to winter weather. When you get a minute, can you tell us whether we should expect a moderate, severe, or in-between winter?

    • I believe the east and portions of the south and SE may be colder than normal this year…but I don’t think it will be very long stretches. Hard to tell with the way this La Nina has setup this year, and the way the temperature profile is over in the Pacific. Once I get a chance, when severe wx isn’t popping, and my work/church schedule calms down, I’ll have to research into it.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. They expect 2-3″+ of rain up here by Thursday AM. I’ll give you my final 3 day totals.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s