HURRICANE OTTO FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OTTO BECOMES A STRONG CAT 2 HURRICANE…ISSUED NOV. 24, 2016…11:30 A.M. EST

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TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION:  HURRICANE OTTO

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 15
HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Happy Thanksgiving from the Forecast Desk!

Tropical Storm Otto became a hurricane once again, and has been upgraded to a high end Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph.  The following was available on Hurricane Otto in the 10:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC:

10:00 AM EST Thu Nov 24
Location: 11.0°N 83.4°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb / 28.79 in
Max sustained: 110 mph

HURREVAC NHC OTTO TACKING MAP AND WIND RADII
hurrevac-otto-error

hurrevac-otto-wnd

Satellite loop imagery indicates a very well organized system.  The current shear and upper level wind product from CIMMS indicates upper level winds are conducive for further strengthening prior to the center crossing the coast of Nicaragua, and Otto could just attain major hurricane status at landfall.  Once Otto moves inland, he should begin to weaken at a steady pace.  It is noted, that the ECMWF did an outstanding job on nailing this system…it was the only model of the three, that brought it close to CAT 2 status

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

There is no change in the forecast track thinking, and Otto should make landfall within the next few hours.  Prayers are going out to the people in the path of this dangerous hurricane.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Limon Costa Rica to Bluefields Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * South of Limon to the Costa Rica/Panama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * Puntarenas Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of Otto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through today. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with total rainfall amounts of up to 10 inches over the higher terrain of far western Panama and southern Costa Rica through Friday. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected today over San Andres and Providencia Islands.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the hurricane warning area during the next several hours, while tropical storm conditions are likely to be occurring already. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the warning area on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua by this evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions over the next several days along the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Please consult products from your local weather office.

This will most likely be my final update on Otto, as he should make landfall shortly.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) still has a 15% probability for Severe Weather on Monday.

SPC DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
day5prob

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to HURRICANE OTTO FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OTTO BECOMES A STRONG CAT 2 HURRICANE…ISSUED NOV. 24, 2016…11:30 A.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. Prayers for Otto’s victims.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. I’ve been in contact with a friend that is in central Costa Rica, inland from the coast. Her area had very little affect from the storm, just some rain , cloudy, cooler than normal, and not much wind. She did say areas well to her North, near the border with Nic. were hit much harder.

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