TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: HURRICANE OTTO
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 15
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Happy Thanksgiving from the Forecast Desk!
Tropical Storm Otto became a hurricane once again, and has been upgraded to a high end Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The following was available on Hurricane Otto in the 10:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC:
10:00 AM EST Thu Nov 24
Location: 11.0°N 83.4°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb / 28.79 in
Max sustained: 110 mph
Satellite loop imagery indicates a very well organized system. The current shear and upper level wind product from CIMMS indicates upper level winds are conducive for further strengthening prior to the center crossing the coast of Nicaragua, and Otto could just attain major hurricane status at landfall. Once Otto moves inland, he should begin to weaken at a steady pace. It is noted, that the ECMWF did an outstanding job on nailing this system…it was the only model of the three, that brought it close to CAT 2 status
There is no change in the forecast track thinking, and Otto should make landfall within the next few hours. Prayers are going out to the people in the path of this dangerous hurricane.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Limon Costa Rica to Bluefields Nicaragua
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * South of Limon to the Costa Rica/Panama border
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * Puntarenas Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua
Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of Otto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through today. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with total rainfall amounts of up to 10 inches over the higher terrain of far western Panama and southern Costa Rica through Friday. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected today over San Andres and Providencia Islands.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the hurricane warning area during the next several hours, while tropical storm conditions are likely to be occurring already. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the warning area on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua by this evening.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane warning area.
SURF: Swells generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions over the next several days along the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Please consult products from your local weather office.
This will most likely be my final update on Otto, as he should make landfall shortly.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) still has a 15% probability for Severe Weather on Monday.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS