TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: TS OTTO
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 15
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
Tropical Storm OTTO became a hurricane yesterday afternoon, and having lost some structure due to some moderate shear, has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm. As of the 1:00 p.m. intermediate advisory, the following was available on OTTO:
1:00 PM EST Wed Nov 23
Location: 11.1°N 81.0°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb / 29.35 in
Max sustained: 70 mph
As stated, OTTO has been experiencing some shear, and the structure much earlier was not as good as the current satellite images, which indicate OTTO has become slowly and slightly better organized over the past 6 hours. As of the current wind shear product, OTTO is still experiencing some moderate shear of 15-20 knots.
Analysis of the GFS wind shear forecast however, indicates shear should weaken over the next 24 hours, with the re-establishment of an upper level anticyclone. This very well may occur just prior to landfall. Based on the storms slow forward motion, I do believe OTTO will once again become a hurricane briefly, just prior to or right at the time of landfall, and I concur with the NHC intensity forecast:
INIT 23/1500Z 11.1N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 11.2N 81.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 11.3N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 11.2N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
48H 25/1200Z 10.8N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 26/1200Z 10.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 9.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 10.0N 102.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
OTTO has been moving toward the WNW, which should be breif, due to a weakness which was noted over Mexico, inducing a slight northward tug on the system. I do expect in about 24 hours, for a bend back to the west, as the ridge continues to orient itself in a way that will carry OTTO west, then WSW as the storm enters the EPAC. Both dynamic and statistical model guidance is in tight agreement of this, which coincides with my analysis of the current forecast steering layers map run.
The following is a summary of watches and warnings that have been issued:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Limon Costa Rica to Bluefields Nicaragua
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * South of Limon to the Costa Rica/Panama border
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * San Andres
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * West of Colon Panama to the Costa Rica/Panama border * Puntarenas Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, usually within 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Providencia Island should monitor the progress of Otto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over San Andres and Providencia islands, and the higher terrain of central and western Panama and southern Costa Rica through today. Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through Thursday. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin late tonight or Thursday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Nicaragua tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in San Andres later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua by Thursday night.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane warning area.
SURF: Swells generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions over the next several days along the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Please consult products from your local weather office.
I will try to have another update tomorrow.
The SPC has designated a 15% probability for severe weather on Mon., Nov. 28. I will see if I can analyze things, and include it in my synopsis then.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS