TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: TS OTTO
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 15
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
The disturbance (INVEST 90L) had become better organized yesterday, and was named a Tropical Depression early yesterday morning. Since then, the system has become much better organized, and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm OTTO. As of the 1:00 p.m. intermediate advisory, the following was available on Tropical Storm OTTO:
1:00 PM EST Tue Nov 22
Location: 10.4°N 79.4°W
Min pressure: 986 mb/29.12 in
Max sustained: 70 mph
Satellite loop images over the past few hours show a nicely organized system, however there has been really no change in the structure. It is noted that some “Hot Towers” have developed close to the center, and a decent CDO has been established, which is shown in the Navy ATCF satellite close up.
OTTO is under some weak shear at the moment, of about 10-15 knots, however the current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds may become a little more favorable during the next 48 hours, with an upper level anticyclone becoming established over the storm once again, and until landfall. The upper level wind product from CIMSS indicates upper level outflow, mainly established to the north of the system, with one branch of the jet just to the south of the storm. Based on forecast shear values, I expect further slow strengthening of OTTO, and OTTO should become a hurricane over the next 12-18 hours. Based on analysis of the shear products, and intensity model guidance, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast with the exception of the ECMWF, which has nailed this system thus far, in being the only one to forecast hurricane intensity, which is forecasting a slightly stronger hurricane of approximately 90 mph.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 22/1500Z 10.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 10.4N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 10.6N 80.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 10.8N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 10.8N 82.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 10.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 10.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 9.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
The current motion of OTTO is stationary, as steering currents are currently weak. However, the current flow suggests that when steering becomes stronger, due to a ridge building north of the area, the initial motion for a breif period will be west, with the storm pushing WSW as we get further into the forecast period. The global models, forecast steering layers maps, and dynamic guidance are all in agreement with this motion. Based on this premise, OTTO should come ashore near, or possibly just south of the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border by early in the day on Thursday.
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings, and Hurricane Watch have been issued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * Costa Rica/Panama border to south of Bluefields
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Nargana to Colon
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * San Andres * West of Colon to the Costa Rica/Panama border
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the day today.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Providencia Island should monitor the progress of Otto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
The following link from the NHC contains watch and warning information, and hazards to land:
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
I will try to have another update tomorrow afternoon.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS